I see the National Hurricane Center updated the chances for development by showing a 10% chance of development for an area in the Southern Caribbean. We all have been scratching our heads at the GFS for showing a hurricane run after run the past week or so and now we have an area of disturbed weather. I feel sometimes we live and die by the ECMWF but since the Weather Service made changes to the GFS tropical parameters it seems the model has been doing better. Ok, you can argue that, but if you use the model for potential development, it seems to show that.

So what’s next. Both models are now showing a weak low in the Southwest Gulf late in the weekend and early next week. The pattern would suggests that some tropical system should show up there but it does not suggest yet that a hurricane would develop. That is something we have to watch and see what happens over the next couple of days. For now, lets keep an eye on things and folks along the Texas coast should watch for an increase in showers and thunderstorms this weekend.