Tropical Trouble May Only Mean Heavy Rains, but….

The system we have been tracking this week is now in the Gulf of Mexico. It looked better organized this morning but has seemed to become little bit disorganized this afternoon. The ECMWF model tried to spin up a storm out on the run last night but backed off that idea on 12z run this morning. The GFS shows nothing at all nor do any of the other models.

My guess is we have a weak low that tries to form but just does not make it due to the movement toward the Texas coast. If the system stalls for a few days which could happen, then I think it has a chance to develop. In any case, the major impacts of a system like this is heavy rains for the Texas coast.

Rainfall for Texas will be in the 1-5 inch category. Some flooding may occur buy given the dryness recently, they might be able to handle that much rain.

GOES16-GM-02-1000x1000


 

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Expert Meteorologist with over 30 years of weather forecasting and blogging.

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