Chris May Develop, but Blocking Stalls the “Out to Sea” Movement

The system off the Southeast coast will most likely develop into a tropical depression and perhaps even become Chris over the weekend. The system is in a good place for development but also in a location where escaping to the northeast and out to sea could be problematic.

Initially, the system will move toward the Southeast coast and loop around while going through the development process. High pressure coming into the Northeast will help to add spin to the system which will aid in the development.

nao.sprd2Next week, the NAO goes negative which means the blocking occurs and it’s my belief that the system stalls again off the mid-Atlantic coast and loops around before escaping to the north-northeast.

The coastal areas of the Carolina’s will be impacted by the system and it’s not out of the question that rain and high winds hits parts of eastern North Carolina early next week.

Other areas to watch for impacts will be eastern New England and Atlantic Canada, depending on where the systems stalls and the movement after the stalling process is over.

 

model9

I would be very careful following models right now as they do have problems with blocking and systems stalling. As you can see, the models do stall it but try to rush it out way to quick to the northeast.

 

Related:

Satellite

Radar

 

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Posted by

Expert Meteorologist with over 30 years of weather forecasting and blogging.

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