Yesterday (Tuesday) I talked about the potential for a storm to zip up the coast Saturday into Saturday night. I called the storm a “Zipper Low.” Refer to yesterday’s blog on why.
The models all seem to be agreement that a storm will develop along the North Carolina coast then zip up the coast, staying off shore until it gets to Long Island. The track of the storm differs though. GFS is now hugging the coast which I don’t think is correct because storms of this nature want to seek the warm water. Below I am showing the NAM-12km model which I think is more inline with reality. While the path could take the storm up through eastern New England, I like a track over Long Island Saturday evening then heading into New England. On that track expect a period of heavy rains and wins gusting over 40 mph, especially on Long Island into southern New England.
Now the Mets out there will probably argue as to whether it was a tropical system or some hybrid type system. As Steve Dimartino pointed out to me this morning, the system will have a warm core in the lower levels and cold core above so if that is correct, it will be a hybrid type system of subtropical low.