We have two days of severe weather as the vortex over the Upper Midwest drops into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. As Mentioned before in previous blogs, this is a highly unusual pattern with an upper level low this time of the year. So think of this, you have upper levels of the atmosphere more like a fall pattern while at the lower levels it’s hot and humid. This will lead to big thunderstorms, some with very large hail, high winds and tornadoes.
I still think the tornado day is Friday as the 250 mb jet noses into the southern Ohio Valley. That means intense upward motion and the tendency for thunderstorms to rotate. You can see on the rotation tracks image that areas of the southern Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley has many rotation tracks, some even strong. That shows that rotation will exists in the supercell storms that develop. I will not be surprised we are faced with a tornado outbreak Friday.
Below is the HRRR model showing the simulated radar for this afternoon.