7:00 pm Edt July 21, 2018 Update
No major changes to the forecast. The storm is now located south of Chincoteague, MD. Heavy rain bands are wrapping around the system into D.C. and eastern Maryland, extending up into south-central Pennsylvania. Rainfall of over 3 inches will occur and will cause flash flooding over the next couple of hours.
Pressure is now down to a 1000 mb and falling. Winds have been increasing up the coast and also now swinging in behind the storm through southeast Virginia. Highest winds are yet to come up the coast across South Jersey where gusts will be over 40 mph and in some cases up to 60 mph later tonight.
I did notice that the storms over the ocean have been showing signs of rotation which is the concern for later tonight across New Jersey in NYC that tornadoes or wind damage will occur with the thunderstorms.
Also, for Lake Ontario folks, HRRR is showing 40kt plus winds Sunday on the lake so be prepared for poor conditions.
Update: 5:00 pm July 21, 2018
The center of the storm is making it’s way off the coast and pressure is down to 1003 mb and falling. We should see the pressure drop to about 996 mb before turning back over The Delmarva. Winds are just starting to come up with gust over 30 mph from Ocean City, MD through Cape May, NJ. Highest winds are yet to come and will hit areas this evening.
Ocean City, MD should see winds up to 50 mph by 8pm tonight, South Jersey by 11pm. Winds overall will be gusting around the storm between 30-45 mph, even into areas from Baltimore to New York City.
There is a threat of severe storms from Delaware through New Jersey to New York City this evening as the band of thunderstorms intensifies coming north.
Ocean over-wash on the beaches is still possible during the highest winds.
Click on Images to See Bigger Images…
Original Post at 8:00 am July 21, 2018
The storm is going to go through a bombing out process during the next 12 hours which means winds are going to increase and heavy rains will expand. It appears now the storm will hug the coast from North Carolina to Delaware then turn northwest up the Delaware Bay. On that track, it will bring high winds and intense rains into the Mid-Atlantic with beaches getting hit with over-wash and flooding as tides come up. I do think power outages will occur due to the heavy rains and high winds.
Below are maps showing the winds, rain and simulated radar. Click on the maps for larger images.
Heavy rains of up to 5 inches will occur causing flash flooding on the back of the storm. HRRR paints an ugly picture for eastern Maryland including Baltimore with up to 7 inches of rain.
Wind gusts will be :
- Virginia Beach – 45 mph
- Ocean City MD – 50 mph
- Baltimore – 40 mph
- Philadelphia – 45 mph
- Cape May, NJ – 55 mph
- Atlantic City – 55 mph
- New York City – 45 mph
- Eastern PA – 30-45 mph.