7:30 pm Update July 25, 2018
The low center is of up Ocean City, MD as the time and appears to be mainly a mid-level center. The low will track north toward Long Island, coming through after Midnight. Time is running out for development so winds may stay under 40 mph in gust. Heavy rain will still accompany the low track as it moves into New England. Fort Dix radar should be able to track the system as it comes up the Jersey coast.
Original discussion.
A very unusual but quick event might be setting up today as low pressure along the coast of South Carolina this morning, moves up through eastern North Carolina and into the Atlantic this afternoon. Once it reaches the Atlantic off Virginia Beach, the system may begin to spin-up into a tropical low. Given the very tropical airmass, the thunderstorms now developing over the Atlantic and upper level low support, low pressure may easily develop quickly.
If the tropical low does develop, the track will take it off the New Jersey Coast and slam it into Long Island tonight, or even very close to New York City. Impacts could be…
- Winds gusting up to 45 mph
- A period of heavy rains
- Thunderstorms
We will know by 4:00pm EDT if the low will develop, because by that time it should be off Virginia Beach.
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