I have to say for once the GFS lead the way in the storm in regards amounts and mixing over. It was very consistent when it came to the change over to rain across parts of the East. Now we can argue on whether it was the best model or not, but given that other models like the NAM and ECMWF were way too high on snow amounts, I think this time I give the GFS the best score for the storm overall.
Just some points from the storm.
- Most models did not catch the few hours of blizzard conditions that moved across the Ohio Valley and parts of the Midwest.
- GFS storm track was not very good. The storm track that I showed was best going from the lower Ohio Valley, over West Virginia and redeveloping along the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
- Ice in some areas was overdone while in others it was underdone.
- Predicted snow amounts seemed to ok for the Northeast and Ohio Valley.
I am sure others can add their observations about the storm, but I think overall things went well in most areas.
So what is up next. It seems the focus is on the 29th storm that some models have others do not. ECMWF above has the storm, but the it seems to be too warm with the storm.
GFS is showing snow for the Midwest this week with up to 7 inches. A 1-3 inch snow event could come through the East following a storm that will bring another shot of cold weather later this week. Yes it’s cold, but it will warm up again ahead of that storm.