Round Two OH, PA, WV to Western NC. Wind Damage and few Tornadoes!

sim1The SPC boys have made changes to the outlook for today by bringing the enhanced area of severe weather back into PA, WV and OH as I talked about yesterday. The mesoscale models continue to point to that area for severe weather that includes wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes.

The Southern extent of the severe weather will wane away this morning as the upper level jet lifts north and the 850 mb winds increase in speed across the threat area.

model1Soundings and hodographs show considerable shear for the support of large hail and tornadoes. The rotation swaths are fairly extensive across this area showing several swaths of strong swaths of rotation. Keep in mind that could be rotation that supports large hail as well as tornadoes. I am curious to see the 12z models as they will have new information.

One of the issues this morning will be the warm advection into PA and eastern OH as a backdoor cold front wiggled through last night and now has to return as a warm front as the surface low tracks into the eastern Great Lakes.