Mon. May 29th, 2023

NHC has finally put out an area to watch for development this morning. While it maybe named as a subtropical system, the impacts for the Mid-Atlantic to New England will be the following….

  • High winds, 20-40kts sustained with gusts 30-50kts.
  • High seas and high swells
  • Coastal flooding with beach erosion
  • Heavy rains, mainly for coastal New England

The operational models seem to be in agreement with the track of the storm coming north and intensifying then looping near the coast before being pushed out to sea by the blizzard in the Upper Midwest. I don’t think the storm will come back all the way to the coast because of that storm in the Midwest.

So will it be named or not? I am guessing they will name it a subtropical system with an outside chance they upgrade it to the tropical storm.

Keep in mind, this is part of the pattern of the NAO on the negative side which means a storm should form. Links for the NAO and PNA are below.