We are once again faced with the 10:1 snowfall ratio model snowfall verses the reality of what will be on the ground. Using the Kuchera snow ratio map for 6z (1am CT Thur) about the time the heaviest snows are falling, notice that the ratios are about 8:1 on average meaning for every inch of rain you get 8 inches of snow. The standard is typically is 10:1 and in the coldest storms can be 20:1.
In addition to the snow ratios, you have to take into account surface temperatures which will be around freezing. All this means that the amount of snow that actually falls verses what is on the ground can be quite different. So when using the model 10:1 snowfall and saying that is how much will fall is actually in accurate.
Below are examples of the GFS and NAM model showing the 10:1 ratio snow maps verses the snow that will actually be on the ground. That’s why I think it’s a 1-8 inch snow event for the Midwest leaning more toward the lower side then the higher side.