Eta Forming, Track and Potential

Eta will form today or by tomorrow. The hurricane modal tracks take the system west toward central America, but some models turn the system north and bring it to Florida. GFS is one of those models that is consistently showing Eta coming north and eventually become a storm for the eastern part of the country. The PNA is going negative and that is one factor to think the GFS is correct.

The tropical dashboard has been updated with the lastest models on Eta.

Snowfall for the Northeast…includes lake snows and storm snow

I am going to use the GFS for now to show the snowfall because I really can not argue about the amount of snow. Obviously around the lakes, the snowfall will be highly variable as usual ranging from 1-12 inches depending on location. Note that the squalls coming into I-80 across western PA and I-90 south of Buffalo are the type that can cause sudden zero visibility and icy roads creating dangerous conditions for pile-ups.

The snow across the Northeast will come Monday and be associated with a storm that develops over New England and heads north into Atlantic Canada. Parts of Maine, Vermont and eastern MA may see 1-3 inches of snow with some locally higher amounts.

Clipper Brings Lake Snows and High Winds

A clipper will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast and kick off the lake snows along with high winds. The winds will last into Monday with gusts all the way to the I-95 Corridor north of Richmond of 30-50 mph. The lake snows will be heavy across northern Michigan, western NY, NW PA, and Appalachians. The lake snows will range from 1-6 inches to as much as 12 inches of snow. I always hate putting in snow amounts in lake effect events because the snow can be so highly variable across the regions I mentioned.

Watch the change to snow on radar.
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