The Storm this Weekend or Early Next Week

When you look at the PNA and NAO, one would think a storm would be forming along the coast this weekend into early next week. The operational models seem to be having issues with the formation of the storm as you see below. Even the CMC model as some storm going west of the Appalachians. If you look at the GFS 500 mb chart is just a chaotic mess of upper level lows running around as you can see below. It does not make sense given the strength of the La Nina right now.

I think that the models are out to lunch so I will stick my neck out on this pattern. The outcome with the storm this weekend is most likely a closed low along the East coast with a storm along the coast. That storm may form new New Jersey or slightly south of there. If that storm does occur, snow will occur interior areas of the Northeast and Appalachians, perhaps New England with rain on the coast and some mix of snow and rain between. What I am not sure about is if there is a first storm that is weaker and just heads out to sea and the second trough that dives in Sunday into Monday is actually the storm that winds up. I am sure one is going to wind-up.

Storm is Underway, Expect Snow, Severe Storms and High Winds

Here’s a break down of the storm and impacts through Tuesday. On Weather Madness Pro, I am doing live blogs on the storm and also talking about the next storm which could be a coastal storm.

HRRR snowfall seem to be on track for widespread 1-4 inches of snow from Tennessee to Ontario. Locally 6 or more of snow will occur in the Appalachians and along the Lake Front. Bulk of the snow will come tonight into Tuesday as the rain changes to the snow as the upper level low moves in. Snow ratios may start at 6:1 then got to 10:1 as it turns colder. I like the snow area shown here on the HRRR. We also need to address the snow across NY into northern New England where 1-3 inches will occur later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Severe storms may hit the Mid-Atlantic. The storms impacts will be damaging wind gusts and perhaps a quick hitting tornado.

Simulated radar shows the storms over The Delmarva this afternoon between 1pm and 4pm.

Rotation tracks show the potential for quick hitting tornadoes in The Delmarva. The storms may also produce hail which can be supported by the rotation.

Strong southerly winds will hit New England, especially the South Coast and Long Island this afternoon and evening. Winds will be gusting 40-60 mph until the cold front moves through this evening. Power outages may occur due to the high winds.

Live Blog For Current Storm Nov 30 to dec 1

8:00 pm – The snows continue all the way to northern Alabama this evening. I can’t find any really good banding of the snow just some heavier snows through West Virginia in eastern Tennessee in the upslope zones. The areas from Ohio into Kentucky has a lot of 3/4 S- snows with the lake shore of Ohio getting rain.

The severe weather has ended but the winds in New England are gusting 40-60 mph this evening. The winds will cut off in about 4- 6 hours as the front moves through.

4:45 pm – It’s snowing all the way to northern Alabama now while in reverse, the tornado watches are in The Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Line of storms continues to move through that area. Snow seems to be light to moderate late this afternoon from Ohio to Tennessee. We really have to wait until after dark for the snow to accumulate.

2:15 pm – Rain has changed over to all snow across most of Ohio. I am not seeing any banding of the storms for heavier snows just yet. Looks like mainly light to occasionally moderate snows right now. It looks like amounts have been light to hardly anything but that may change after dark when snow can accumulate.

2:15 pm – Tornado watch is now out. Storms ate crossing into The Delmarva. Some of the storms are showing signs of weak rotation. The best chance for a tornado will be in eastern Maryland and Delaware over the next couple of hours.

12:15 pm – Heavy Thunderstorms are moving through Southeast PA into The Delmarva. One particular storm heading toward Wilmington DE is showing signs of rotation and strong wind gusts.

9:15 am – Strong wind gusts will develop this afternoon across New England and Long Island. Gusts 40-60 mph will occur. Winds will last until the cold front moves through.

9:15 am – Severe storms may develop along the East coast this afternoon. The storms impacts will be damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. So far as of this writing, storms have not developed.

9:00 am – Snow is mixing in across Ohio and Indiana. We have not yet seen all snow over a large area. It will take until this evening before the entire area fills in with snow from Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky. We will also see snow developing across Ontario and southeast Michigan over the next couple of hours.

Tornadoes May Hit Louisiana into Mississippi Saturday
This is default text for notification bar