It appears the Eta continues to show intensification this afternoon and it should become a tropical storm by Saturday. I think it’s clear that Eta will move northeast across Cuba and be close to southern Florida Monday. I doubt landfall will occur in Florida but it’s not out of the question that Key West takes a hit Monday night or Tuesday. After that the storm will head north and most likely hit as a tropical storm somewhere in the Florida Panhandle next week. I think the storm will weaken but that does not mean that heavy rains hit the East and head north into the Mid-Atlantic.

You can see by the 12z hurricane model runs that the consensus seems clear to southern Florida but after that the spread becomes less clear.