Long Range Look at the SNow Potential

I am getting pumped for the end of the month into December pattern. When you see the modeling heading into a stormy pattern with both the PNA and NAO going neutral with a weakened La Nina, one has to get excited. Last nights GFS went to the Big Daddy storm for the Northeast, but probably will not happen, however, the pattern is going in the direction of stormy with a lot of potential. Just for the fin of it, I am showing you the GFS snowfall. I will also note that the CFS is going in that direction too. I know a lot of outlets continue to talk about warmth but I just don’t see it. In fact, I see some outlets reversing course based on the polar vortex and EPO changing. I know the ECMWF monthlies are warm, but keep in mind, the best storms occur in warm patterns. If the pattern is too cold, the storms get shoved too far south and the snows are suppressed.

Below is Posted the CFS model showing the snow on the ground by Dec 15. What i am sensing from looking at everything that we are going to go into a blocking pattern by early December only because the weakened La Nina will have a tendency to buckle amplified troughs and ridges downwind of the Rockies which could mean a block forming over Greenland. If that is the case, it turns colder in the Plains to the East.



First of December in the Mid-Atlantic, so I just have to wonder whether the ground will be cold enough, or whether 10:1 really needs to be adjusted for melting-on-contact. Yes it is interesting (why I am a happy subscriber), but here in north-central Maryland, despite the foot-or-so this says, I bet its not half that. But its easy to armchair quarterback models! Thanks Henry!

Weather Madness

Good points. Lets first get to the storm.


Interesting post today Henry. As a long, long time (age not given) weather nut from central Maryland, we’ll see what shakes out.
What a strange weather year it has been. I was playing golf last week in shorts in 75 degree temps! A persistent southeast ridge to say the least. I seem to remember the winter of 2014-2015 not getting cold until mid December. Anyway, looking forward to the winter of 20/21 no matter what happens.

Keith Larochelle

The CFS doesn’t like Maine I see. Oh, poor Maine: many unhappy skiers and snowmobile owners! 🙁 I guess we’re not quite far enough north any longer to have a reliable permanent winter snow cover. We used to be, especially here in the higher elevations. From early December to early April was almost always continuous snow cover.