I am getting pumped for the end of the month into December pattern. When you see the modeling heading into a stormy pattern with both the PNA and NAO going neutral with a weakened La Nina, one has to get excited. Last nights GFS went to the Big Daddy storm for the Northeast, but probably will not happen, however, the pattern is going in the direction of stormy with a lot of potential. Just for the fin of it, I am showing you the GFS snowfall. I will also note that the CFS is going in that direction too. I know a lot of outlets continue to talk about warmth but I just don’t see it. In fact, I see some outlets reversing course based on the polar vortex and EPO changing. I know the ECMWF monthlies are warm, but keep in mind, the best storms occur in warm patterns. If the pattern is too cold, the storms get shoved too far south and the snows are suppressed.
Below is Posted the CFS model showing the snow on the ground by Dec 15. What i am sensing from looking at everything that we are going to go into a blocking pattern by early December only because the weakened La Nina will have a tendency to buckle amplified troughs and ridges downwind of the Rockies which could mean a block forming over Greenland. If that is the case, it turns colder in the Plains to the East.