The Storm this Weekend or Early Next Week

When you look at the PNA and NAO, one would think a storm would be forming along the coast this weekend into early next week. The operational models seem to be having issues with the formation of the storm as you see below. Even the CMC model as some storm going west of the Appalachians. If you look at the GFS 500 mb chart is just a chaotic mess of upper level lows running around as you can see below. It does not make sense given the strength of the La Nina right now.

I think that the models are out to lunch so I will stick my neck out on this pattern. The outcome with the storm this weekend is most likely a closed low along the East coast with a storm along the coast. That storm may form new New Jersey or slightly south of there. If that storm does occur, snow will occur interior areas of the Northeast and Appalachians, perhaps New England with rain on the coast and some mix of snow and rain between. What I am not sure about is if there is a first storm that is weaker and just heads out to sea and the second trough that dives in Sunday into Monday is actually the storm that winds up. I am sure one is going to wind-up.

One comment

Keith Larochelle

Unfortunately, the Maine NWS doesn’t agree. The discussion talked about nothing but above normal temperatures and how the next potential storm would bring little if any snow. They were going with the models at the time and were suggesting the storm would pass too far south and east. I’m afraid until I see more concrete evidence for a permanent or semi-permanent change, I can’t believe that this mild pattern will end for more than very brief periods. It seems like every time it looks like a change is around the corner it eventually vanishes and the mild weather continues. Essentially, I can’t believe in any pattern shift until it happens and locks. I think you see the same thing Henry as you have commented that the El Niño might overwhelm all other indices that would normally foretell a stable pattern change.