8 pm Update Live Blog: Storm Updates for the Severe Winter Storm

8pm Update. Convective band of snow is working it’s way through WV into central PA. We should see good snow rates the next 4-6 hours across central PA. Bursts of heavy snow are going through northern NJ into NE PA. Rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible next few hours.

Sleet has mixed in from the Maryland into SE PA and central NJ. We may see a change back to snow as the upper low comes across tonight.

HRRR shows where the heaviest snow will fall over the next 6-10 hours.

At my house we have 8-9 inches and keep going between moderate to heavy snow.


7am – The arctic front did settle south last night and is form south Jersey into central PA. The airmass behind that front is dry so we may see some virga for a time before the snow gets going. That frontal position will play a factor today for where the heavy snow bands will set up. My thinking is that band shifts into eastern PA to southern New England. 

5:45am – Light to moderate snow is underway across Illinois into Indiana and western Ohio this morning. Ice is developing across western North Carolina. Radar shows some moderate rains moving through that area so look for quick icing on roads the next several hours.

5:30m – Latest ECMWF model snowfall. Some shifting going on overnight as models were figuring out the banding of the snow. It seemed the NAM and HRRR models had issues trying to figure out storm track and snowfall. I think the HRRR is now resolving the issues and is getting track with snow amounts.

9pm – NAM and HRRR did a shift into east in PA with the heavy snow. Looks like all the meso-scale models did a shift east with the heavy snow.

8pm – This is amazing look at the potential weather map Wednesday evening showing the heavy snow banding across PA and the severe storms over The Delmarva.

7pm – This was the late afternoon Saturday image that showed the upper level system over Oklahoma and the surface low near Jacksonville, Fl. The two will merge along the East coast to produce the record snowfall setting storm Wednesday.

27 comments

snowybeach777

Henry, Any thoughts what drew this storm 100-200 miles west compared to this past weekend that was missed originally by most of the models?

Weather Madness

The blocking pattern.

robodcfd

How strong will the High be??????

robodcfd

You said the transfer to the coast around Cape Hatt NC. Any chance it will happen around Georgia coast?

jcrean1995

I am located in North Eastern RI and wishing for 2 feet plus >>>>

jcrean1995

Please convection, and snow elves, crush my area….it’s been such a tough year…and a good two feet would be such a nice way to end the year.

snowybeach777

Henry, where is the info on the live blog, I see the 7am piece above but you have been sending info on Twitter. Also, is the blog interactive with you, if so is this it or is there another blog.

Thanks

jtlebherz

Hey Henry. I was just noticing that the 540 thickness line has sunk to about the southern county line of Frederick, MD. I know that there are other factors to look at but it has been interesting to see the line sag south since the day began. It is snowing heavily here – Lat: 39.428 Long.: -77.428

dklatraverse

Henry
Here in Middlesex County NJ. Cold north wind, getting very windy. Snowing

RichBlessingHomes

Change over to sleet at 2pm in Ashburn VA. 3 inches on the ground. 29 degrees.

Weather Madness

Thanks for all the obs. My temp feel 2 degrees the last hour and now heavy snow.

jcrean1995

storm is weakening???? does not appear to bombing out?

janneyconstructionsvcs

FYI. Mixing Dillsburg Pa since 5:30 pm

snowybeach777

I see the updates now, you must of lumped them all together, there was nothing there when I posted above, plus there were no email updates that you posted something, will there be email updates moving forward.

dklatraverse

Very heavy snow in North Brunswick NJ. Temp fell to 27. 5-6” on the ground

jcrean1995

this storm is going to be a bust for many….very ragged looking, huge dry slot forming….blah blah blah

jcrean1995

my local noaa office nailed this a few days ago….grrr! some areas will verify with snow fall amounts, but most won’t come close

RichBlessingHomes

Full fledge ice storm in Ashburn Va. never reached 30 here. Freezing rain now all sleet. Trees ice covered and drooping. Sleet pounding our north facing house front.

RichBlessingHomes

Now reading about trees coming down on Nextdoor. Ashburn Va.

jcrean1995

I am located in Rhode Island…..and a massive dry slot is headed this way,….also much of central and eastern new england…so this is going to be a massive bust!!! again, I give credit to local noaa office, who called this days ago…..anyhow, 3-6 inches maybe,,, for a huge swath where 12-18 was forecasted ……….is there a conspiracy here???

jcrean1995

we are up to about 1/2 inch on ground,…this is the far north eastern tip of RI….if we get 4 inches, I’d be shocked…anyhow, I appreciate the hard work that henry and other meteorologists put into their forecasts ….but this degree of inaccuracy should not happen in 2020…

jcrean1995

inexcusable really….

snowybeach777

Henry, having problems accessing the site, any suggestions? Thx

On Tue, Dec 15, 2020 at 7:49 PM Weather Madness Pro™ wrote:

> Henry Margusity posted: ” I am not going to show snow maps anymore unless > they are the HRRR maps. The storm is coming and I think I has said > everything I can about the storm impacts. Now is the time to update on what > is currently going on. 7pm – This was the late afternoon S” >