SPC did upgrade the severe weather area to a moderate risk and is considering upgrading to a HIGH Risk by Thursday morning. While the dynamics are stronger with this system compared to last week, the deciding factors will be the extent of the showers and cloud cover which could limit the instability. In any case, the HRRR and NAM are all showing the potential for supercell thunderstorms that can contain long tracked tornadoes and/or damaging hail depending on how you view the rotation tracks. Also, we have seen a shift north of the severe weather to be centered over Tennessee with the 12z runs. Also, I mentioned in a tweet that SPC should shift the risk areas north to cover the storms that are snuggled up against the low center.

Severe storms will develop across central Texas this afternoon and evening. Some of the storms that do develop may produce damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. This will be the same area will will head northeast with the low center and produce storms all the way through Arkansas.