The number of severe weather reports this year remain well below normal as Neutral ENSO conditions and Blocking Pattern suppress the severe weather pattern. The La Nina was running strong the start of the year but weakened dramatically to neutral conditions according to the SOI values. The blocking pattern came on strong this month and has suppressed the storm track forcing the troughs into the eastern part of the country. The number of tornadoes continues to run below normal which is a good thing. We have seen most of the tornado activity centered over the South this year not as much in the Plains. While we will see severe weather in the Plains to the Mississippi Valley this week, the rotation tracks show that a limited number of tornadoes may occur during this outbreak. It would appear that this will be mainly a wind and hail event with locally heavy rains. Long range operational models continue to show the suppression of the severe weather well into May.

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