Ernesto continues to move northeast very quickly and will begin a transformation from tropical storm to an extratropical the next 24 hours. On the track that Ernesto is going, the storm will hit Ireland and the U.K. Saturday into Sunday.

Despite the transformation, Ernesto will still pack a punch when it hits. Winds will be gusting over 40 mph and a period of heavy rain will occur. The Ireland West Coast will see high seas and heavy waves which may cause coastal flooding.

Rainfall will be over an 1.00″ with some areas having much more and flooding. Winds may knock down trees and power lines causing power outages.

Satellite Image of Ernesto

NHC Track Maps

Rainfall from Ernesto

Forecast Track

Major Hurricane Hector is currently southeast of the Big Island in Hawaii and is expected to pass about 145 miles south of the Big Island on Wednesday. At the distance, Hector will only produce large waves across the Island and have little impacts in regards to wind and rain.

Wind History

Hector developed on July 31 as depression then a tropical storm. So far, Hector has traveled almost 2000 miles since forming 8 days ago. Hector is moving at 16 mph and at that speed, Hector will cover over 375 miles per day. The history of Hector is shown to the right moving from 13.0 N and 118.2 W to 15.9 N to 147.1 W during the last 8 days.

The operational models (GFS and ECMWF) are showing Hector moving across the Pacific then recurving to the north and eventually into the north Pacific over the next 14 days. On that track if it occurs, Hector would cover over 7000 miles and could be the record longest tracked tropical system, beating hurricane John in 1994 which traveled 7165 miles over 31 days. John started near Mexico and manage to cross the Pacific and become a typhoon.  The storm recurved into the north Pacific and was absorbed by a northern latitude storm.

Hector may also impact parts of Alaska or British Columbia depending on what happens with the storm becomes involved with the northern jet stream.

Hurricane/Typhoon John Track in 1994

7:30 pm Update July 25, 2018

The low center is of up Ocean City, MD as the time and appears to be mainly a mid-level center. The low will track north toward Long Island, coming through after Midnight. Time is running out for development so winds may stay under 40 mph in gust. Heavy rain will still accompany the low track as it moves into New England. Fort Dix radar should be able to track the system as it comes up the Jersey coast.

Original discussion.

A very unusual but quick event might be setting up today as low pressure along the coast of South Carolina this morning, moves up through eastern North Carolina and into the Atlantic this afternoon. Once it reaches the Atlantic off Virginia Beach, the system may begin to spin-up into a tropical low. Given the very tropical airmass, the thunderstorms now developing over the Atlantic and upper level low support, low pressure may easily develop quickly.

If the tropical low does develop, the track will take it off the New Jersey Coast and slam it into Long Island tonight, or even very close to New York City. Impacts could be…

• Winds gusting up to 45 mph
• A period of heavy rains
• Thunderstorms

We will know by 4:00pm EDT if the low will develop, because by that time it should be off Virginia Beach.