10:1 Ratio Snow Maps vs Reality of the Big Daddy Blizzard

I want to illustrate a point about using snow maps as gospel. The computer models use what is called 10:1 standard snow ratios to produce the maps meaning that for every inch of liquid you get 10 inches of snow. So most of the model maps you see out there in social word are typically […]

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First Snows of the Season Coming!

Total Snow Map

It’s fall and that means the change of seasons has started and the first snows will begin to show-up across the northern tier states. While some snow has fallen across the high country of the Rockies recently and also across parts of western Canada, the change int he pattern means accumulating snows for parts of […]

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Big Hail, Big Winds from Big Storms

Big thunderstorms will develop over the High Plains this afternoon and evening and probably form into a nocturnal cluster of thunderstorms tonight. The storms will develop by 4:00 pm MDT this afternoon probably near of close to the I-25 corridor. The storms will be mainly hail producers but will also produce high winds and perhaps […]

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Tornadoes Possible the Next Two Days

We have two days of severe weather as the vortex over the Upper Midwest drops into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. As Mentioned before in previous blogs, this is a highly unusual pattern with an upper level low this time of the year. So think of this, you have upper levels of the atmosphere […]

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Multi-Day Severe Weather Starts Today in the Northern Plains

An upper level low will begin to dive southeast and over the next 4 days, we will severe weather around that upper level low. As mentioned yesterday, this is a little unusual to see such a vortex developing this time of the year. The implications mean severe weather given we are at the heart of […]

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Unusual Vortex Could Lead to Northwesterly Flow Severe Weather Outbreak!

I might be going out on a limb here, but the pattern will lead to an unusual vortex developing over the Great Lakes by this weekend. The trough will take on a negative tilt and strong jet streak will come down from the northwest which will add lift for thunderstorm development. The configuration looks more […]

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Severe Weather from Big Sky Country to the North Star State

Severe storms will develop across Montana today then redevelop across Minnesota Wednesday. The worse of the storms will occur across eastern Montana this afternoon into the evening. The storms will produce damaging winds, large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Latest model guidance shows the supercells may develop this afternoon across eastern Montana which […]

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Hail Denting Storms Saturday

Severe weather will once again hit the Northern Plains late Saturday into Saturday night. This is probably the 6th round of severe weather in weeks to hit the same area. This time, the storms that develop will produce mainly damaging large hail and high winds. While a few tornadoes may occur, the impacts will be […]

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