Happy Weather Monday, November 21, 2022
I Get the Storm but What About the Snow?
Short Range: The next couple of days will turn milder for much of the East which is good news after the spell of cold and lake snows.
The question becomes, what about the storm this weekend. The GFS and ECMWF are at odds on how the storm comes about. The GFS does not phase the two branches of the jet but the ECMWF does phase the jets producing a bigger storm this weekend. Either way, the Northeast and Appalachians will end up with some snow from Friday into Monday. How we get there really depends on how the two branches of the jet phase or not phase. I still believe that a storm will end up along the coast by Friday into Saturday. Even if that happens, how much cold air will be available for snow.
Long Range: The long range is once again challenging. The CFS model is showing heavy amounts of snow from the Plains into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. I see how that occurs as we have a short break in the pattern from the 30th to the 5th but after the 5th, the cold air comes back, the AO and NAO go negative again which leads to snowstorms. Keep in mind, as we go into December, the chances for heavy snow increase as cold air become more readily available.
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