We’ve cleared out here in central Shenandoah Valley. Some flurries here and there but most of snow over the ridges in West Va.
It’s now 32 with west winds gusting up to 28 as temp falls into mid 20s overnight. Better calmer weather by Thursday.

Mountains have done a good job of busting up the squall line. Most severe stuff now east of Blue Ridge. In the Shenandoah Valley, we now wait for the chill down heading our way and the white stuff stays along the Alleghany front.
We will welcome the return of “normal” 60 & 70s!!

Our first storm just blew in from the southwest in Augusta County VA with heavy downpour, lightning & winds gusting to 25 with a mild 65 degrees.
Tornado watch just to south of the area and more stormy conditions in SW Va.heading this way.
Nothing too severe just yet.

Same here, 80 yesterday and today a few hours of snow at 33 degrees in Va’s central Shenandoah Valley (10-1 pm) with clearing skies about on us to cause our 3/4” snow that whitened the grass to disappear. Bizarre stuff!

In the central Shenandoah Valley of Va. we have those big ole “lard flakes” but it all melts on the roadways and most areas that gets direct insolation at 34 degrees.
Dry when you get down around Roanoke.

Folks, be careful what you wish for. Any time SEVERE winter weather happens, someone could die from traffic accidents, hypothermia, etc. Ice storms, like what they got in Tenn. & Miss. created terrible damage to trees and utility lines.
Our snow & sleet plowed here in the central Shenandoah Valley has created Cement “icebergs” that are unf…Read More

Interesting item found:

Confidence is increasing that a winter storm will develop over
the far southern Appalachians Friday and possibly move up the Mid-Atlantic
Coast Saturday. The weather prediction center held a conference
call with the southern Mid-Atlantic NWS offices this afternoon,
and consensus was to digest more data from the 18Z…Read More

A tip of the hat to the VDOT road crews and their independent contractors for a terrific job keeping Interstates 81 and 64 easily passable with caution in the central and southern Shenandoah Valley. Sunshine should help visable pavement dry somewhat Monday.
They had a huge “snowblower” also clearing back the shoulders on the interstates from the…Read More

4” snow 10F now sleet here at 1,400’ elevation in east-central Augusta County Va.

This setup looks more like a gigantic overrunning situation instead of a specific low (storm) center until one forms later tonight off Delmarva.
The cold dry atmosphere is so massive (and rare) that upper level troughs dominate and produce precip but not overly heavy.

This situation reminds me of a time in the early 1990s when we got 4-6” of fluffy snow then 4” of sleet that mashed it all down and we drove fairly easy with caution on “white asphalt” for a few days as it was in the teens and 20s for several days in Va’s Shenandoah Valley.

Snowshoe Mtn. Ski Resort is 70 miles due west as a crow flies from my place and there are blizzard warnings for Wed. PM out along the Alleghany front in WV while here in the Shenandoah Valley, we are supposed to have some sunshine, breezy conditions and temps (hopefully) in the 40s to help melt our 4” minor snowfall.
Those Appalachian m…Read More

In just a few hours, temp has fallen to 23 deg, winds north at 6 mph for a wnd chill of 18 here in Augusta County Va. at 1,400 ft elev. some flurries still falling and roadways are tricky with mainly bare pavement but black ice extremely possible.
Have about 3 “ snow just like in our last minor event. North down the valley past New Market, no s…Read More

About 2.5” snow in central Augusta County Va. and still steadily lightly snowing at 1:30 pm. Roadways mostly wet as plenty of salt and brine was spread after our last 3” on last Fri. AM had already melted.

Once again we have been starved for legitimate rain in the Shenandoah Valley of VA. Just some drizzly breezy conditions today. Basically, it was just an immediate coastal problem and not quite the doom and gloom inland forecast of old. Maybe the accuracy will increase as we head into winter.

Coming up on 11 pm EDT in Augusta Co. VA it is still 49F 9C. 64% Humidity and calm winds. temp obviously needs to drop a lot to reach low 30s.
Will be interesting to see what happens over the weekend regarding our rain chances. Coastal areas may have Nor’easter conditions.

Our first frost/freeze advisory looks set for Fri.. AM in central Shenandoah Valley depending on if a breeze sets up.

Getting chilly at night here in the central Shenandoah Valley … getting that fall feel. We had some light rain last weekend but it is still so dry as we head into wildfire season.

We received some decent rain today in the central Shenandoah Valley of VA but not enough to dent a pretty significant drought. Now, no influences expected from Imelda next week (assuming it actually forms). Leaves have turned color and beginning to drop.

Future to be Hurricane Imelda may possibly bring needed remnant rain (2-3”+) Mon. Evening into Wed. AM for the parched central Shenandoah Valley of Va. Worried a bit for the mountains of Western NC.
Decent model consensus at the moment. We’ll see how accurate.

We need some substantial rains in VA’s Shenandoah valley and very soon. We will have wild fire problems again when leaves start shedding into tinder dry woodlands.
We had some very light precip yesterday and maybe some scattered showers might appear mid next week. It’s critical.

Roanoke Va was drenched with 4-5 inches of rain in 2 hours this evening causing serious flash flooding with some rescues needed. The storms just meandered slowly NNW to the SSE possibly skirting around subsidence from Erin. An Odd trajectory. Here in the Shenandoah Valley — basically nothing.

Any Hurricane meeds attention by the affected area and the people. Thankfully the steering of Erin was
as forecasted. But the media circus atmosphere needs to be reeled in so in the future people won’t disregard bonafide threats.
It’s simple: avoid the beach as large swellls and rip currents are a given “killer” if a cyclone is nearby.

Geez, today a major network newscast leads off about Erin charging along the East Coast. The effects like breeze, swells and maybe some rain. It is the rip currents that beach goers need to avoid.

I guess Henry’s camera got “overstressed/overwored” staring at him all these days🤣
I guess better safe than get a surprise veer left by a big cyclone but seems an overreaction to evacuate OBX (mainly the islands). Once again the media’s speculation and hype goes overboard but right on par with the environmental climate change narrative.

About 6” snow in eastern Augusta County. VDOT crews and their partners have done a good job keeping interstates and other main roads fairly passible with caution. Some accidents have occurred.
Out in western part of county, 9” near Summerdean and. 7” at Verona.
Just flurries at this time and 33 F

Heading towards Hi noon its 44 F in eastern Augusta County Va. and sunny. Monday sun and 46 F as we wait for Tues. 3-5” snow, possibly less if liquid precip mixes in.
But after that, temps stay “normal” and not a 5-7 day stretch of teens and 20s.
Flood threat could rear its ugly head by next weekend.

Today 2/8 had a trace amount of sleet early this AM in eastern Augusta County, VA. Just cloudy at noon and 33 degrees

The phasing of the jets as stated by HM, has always been quite difficult to predict if/when/where it occurs.
Stay tuned.

Gracious … getting a 2 feet+ of snow blizzard from Balto-Wash northeast past New York city would be crippling for multiple days.
An interesting next few weeks!

5 inches total snow/sleet mix in eastern Augusta County Va. … I-64 and 81 and most main roads down to mostly bare pavement now. No precip.

NWS Sterling (LWX) spins the wheel of winter:

“The vast majority of the forecast area is now expected to
see all snow. The exception will be across central Virginia and
the central Shenandoah Valley, especially from I-64 southward,
where sleet may mix in. A broad 6-12 inches of snow is expected
across nearly all of the forecast area, w…Read More

This snow event reminds me of maybe 10 years ago when a classic frontogenetic (warm front) setup produced 1-2 feet of snow in northern Shenandoah Valley around Winchester and Martinsburg WV over towards DC while 90 miles away in the southern areas (Staunton) there was only a few (3-4”) inches.
We’ll see if something similar occurs in this for…Read More

As I have said, storms heading due east over the Appalachians around WVa. Usually dump a lot west of the crest, but usually “run out of gas” (moisture) from the Shen Valley and eastward unless a quick reforming occurs at the coast.
Now, that could change. Also sometimes a bunch of convection in the deep south can rob us of moisture here in Va.…Read More

One thing I have noted over the past 40+ years here in NW Va. is exactly what trajectory the cold high pressure takes entering the mid-atlantic greatly influences storms. Sometimes, the push is so great the storms get shoved (develop) too far off the coast. Not exactly the most scientific analysis I guess.

Reached a high of 64 today in the central Shenandoah Valley with winds picking up and some light showers. Right after New Year’s the temps begin a steady decline. Then, whenever low pressure starts to develop in the lower Miss. Valley, that’s when the real threat of heavy snow starts for this area.
Always seems like it get really mild before the…Read More

Here in NW Va. the ONLY weather problem ahead is the true cold snap coming this weekend into next week.
“surprise” storms in winter and summer, have occurred forever and the lesson should be like the Boy Scouts: be prepared and informed.

Henry is right. it is time to start calling out this nonsense being spread by buffoons who have dome sort of agenda to inflate the supposed “ coast-to-coast” storm coming that will provide travel nightmares. First started by those Weather Channel
“ hypesters” taking orders from its NBC climate hawks and also present on Fox news. My gosh, o…Read More

Just flurries in the Shenandoah Valley of Va. but our neighbors to the west of the Alleghany Front are experiencing upslope near blizzard conditions. Snowshoe Mt. Resort cameras showed heavy snow squalls, limited visibility and the snow-making guns churning out the white stuff for soon-to-be skiing.

Yikes, another fall season tornado threat. Henry’s rotation tracks are rearing their ugly selves.

Who knows where the model “Relocate Rumba” will eventually place the storm. Maybe we can have a nice moderate rain creep up the east coast (but spare Western NC)

If the latest GFS can be relied upon (?), The Shenandoah Valley Va. will enjoy a sunny, low 70s Election Day weather regime.
But soon we could use some rain to moisten the mounainsides to try and thwart forest fires.

The Aurora Borealis (hues of green blue) seen perodically from atop Afton Mt. tonight in NW Va. it’s my first and likely last time to see the “northern lights”
Anyone think these solar flares/electromagnetic changes could in any way affect the weather patterns??

Also, Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg had its fabric toof completely shredded an hour ago. And was left in tatters with hundreds of utility workers sleeping cots set up inside the stadium getting somewhat soaked.

Just heard from a friend that Tampa Bay had most of the water sucked out similar to what happened a year or so ago. Getting pummeled by rain and wind. It might be the tornados will cause more deaths in the end.

Tampa Bay itself just might escape horrendous surge with gushing rain spreading inland north of where the degraded eye travels. However southward towards Fort Myers Beach may get the full brunt.

Gosh it appears milton may ride right up the I-4 corridor if no direct turn to the east occurs soon.

It was interesting that the latest HRRR Seems to take eye in south of Tampa Bay near Sarasota, then diminish somewhat.

Milton back down to 905 mb
Just a guess but the cold front in N Florida may just nudge it a bit further south of Tampa.

Folks, this may not be important but watching video of people filling sandbags makes me wonder if some are wasting their time with as much storm surge is expected. I guess something is better than nothing but a couple stacks of sandbags are only good for possibly minor inland flooding.