Interesting event following back to back 80 degree days!

37 and sleet in Ashburn at 9:45

Ashburn, Va. 58 down from 78 during Wx and a beer.

@weathermadness Henry is the center moving westward? Odd look to this!

This sounding was at Dulles Airport. The warm layer is only a few hundred feet!

Ashburn, VA near Dulles. 6″ and sleet at 14.2 degrees.

Over performing event. Snow showers became 2″ in Ashburn Va

Accuweather doesn’t see any warmth!

In Ashburn (IAD) 22 degrees with dewpoint at 5! No snow for you!

Ended up with 5″ in Ashburn, Northern VA

IAD – Flurries started at 9:15. DP up to 26. Temp at 34

IAD, 32 degrees with dewpoint at 25!

You’re pronouncing “Adirondacks” correctly…close enough. My wife’s family lives there. See ya tonight!

Temperature dropping…from 37 to 35 in 15 minutes, snow mixing in here in Northern VA

Amen, Henry. Go zero tolerance! One time and you’re history!!!

4” light snow. 25 with dew point at 24.5. Ashburn Va near IAD. 6 inches just south and east.

@weathermadness Henry I’m seeing signs of a negative tilt. Again, it’s all about timing and syncing. BUT, this vigorous artic front runner fed by SE T-storms could stall off the coast over the gulf stream. Catch the NNW highway and be one hell of a Nor’ Easter. Am I off or what?

@Henry, you’re dissing Kyle’s model, but when we focus on the Jan 3-8 timeframe, all teleconnections fully supports the nor’easter. Looking out 30-90 days? Yea, no. His long range is no longer reliable.

Layer of mix on the deck this morning at 28 near IAD. This marks the fifth day this month with flurries. Recently rare in Northern Virginia. Hopefully foreshadowing a snowy January.

Amen, Henry. I love your line: “If you know a Cat 5 was caused by climate change, why did you not know it earlier and warn everyone”? paraphrasing here

Henry, my news feed posted this yesterday: “We could see a parade of storms developing during the month of September,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a news release. “There’s a possibility that we could see multiple tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin on the same day, similar to the frequency of storms tha…Read More

The video is not showing it says it’s private and locked

It got dark and lights came on. Spooky.

Pretty cloudy in Old Forge NY but still awesome.

Get better soon, Henry!

What happened with the forecast track last night? Really awful on less than 12 hours out. Is the warm Atlantic playing a larger role than interpreted by the models? Anybody?

Bust in Ashburn No VA. At 4am it look awesome. Woke at 6 am, 33 degrees and all streets and sidewalks are just wet.

Upgraded to a warning. 4-6

Winter storm watch for 2-4 with up to 6 in some spots. IAD Ashburn

Winter weather advisory in western DC Suburbs. 2 inches. So what? Nothing burger.
Now my daughter calls us, schools are closed! Can you watch the grandkids?
Sure, but, really? Do they know something we don’t or is this our new world of pansies?

Crazy, Henry.

Whoa!!

Check out this article. https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/a-roaring-tailwind-just-hurled-a-passenger-plane-at-826-miles-per-hour/ar-BB1hjLNt

Pull quote “ A roaring Pacific jet stream, supercharged by the El Niño climate pattern and moving at more than 250 mph, gave the flight a boost.”

1.60” over night. Woke me up twice.

4.5″ again! 9″ for the week and still coming down. 29 degrees. Very fluffy easy to shovel. Ashburn VA near IAD

This is getting comical.

4.5” in Ashburn near Dulles Airport

Henry, your report on Northern VA is right on. Gotta love an over achieving light event. Just shoveled 4.25 in Ashburn just north of Dulles Airport.

.85″ at 2pm in Ashburn VA – near Dulles Airport. Intensity beginning to increase.

As a result my guess is more than the 1-2 forecasted. Timing, and this “storm” is moving quickly, is either 2-4 or an icy 1-2.

Dew Point pretty low.

More rain mixing in than thought but 2-4 is realistic here in Ashburn VA, 20147. Cold all week high in 30’s. Wonder if GFS soil temp input has any significance. To me much more than SOI values should have. I’ll give you all an input tomorrow.

Merry Christmas, Henry and to my fellow Weather Weenies!

I have an Ambient 2902. Was 22 at 4pm but up to 27 now. I’m in Northern Virginia near Dulles Airport.

Henry, you are usually expressing your unsatisfacton with the GFS, but keep leading with it as your model of choice. Why not show the ECMWF more?

Henry, thoughts on this?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/gary-lezak-claims-he-can-predict-hurricanes-months-in-advance

Henry, post some commenting guidlelines. If users violate them, pull their subscription!