One of the best mesoscale Professors I had in college was Dr. Fritsch. He was the one who came up with some many new ways to look at mesoscale meteorology back in the day. He was also the one who coined the phrase “Zipper Low” for a low pressure system that zips up the East Coast with gusty winds and rain.

The models are in fair agreement that in this highly unusual pattern that will develop later this week that low pressure will redevelop off the North Carolina coast then zip north into New York and New England. It remains to be seen how strong this system will be and if this system has tropical-like characteristics. Most likely what we will see is a small low pressure system with strong winds and heavy rain bands wrapping around it.

Question becomes, does it hit New York City or go into New England. That we may not know for a few more days but folks on Long Island should probably watch this one just in case the system spins-up quickly in strong storm.

Below is the 500 mb pattern for Saturday which shows an upper level low sitting over the Great Lakes.

Upper Level Pattern for Saturday

The tropical system has moved onto the Texas coast near Corpus Christi, TX this afternoon. The heaviest rains have so far been along the upper Texas coast near Houston, but overtime, we will see heavy rains moving inland across most of the central and northern Texas coast.

The system will move into south-central Texas and will become almost stationary for a few days. Yesterday it appeared the system would only produce a few inches of rain but now it appears the system becomes stuck which means several rounds of heavy rains and thunderstorms across parts of San Antonio to Houston and as far north as Dallas.

San Antonio, Austin and the Hill Country will see several inches of rain and some places could see a foot of rain. This means some serious flooding is possible over the next couple of days.

Remember, flash flooding happens fast. It only takes 6 inches of fast moving water to push a car down stream. Driving across flooding roadways could be dangerous in this situation.

The system we have been tracking this week is now in the Gulf of Mexico. It looked better organized this morning but has seemed to become little bit disorganized this afternoon. The ECMWF model tried to spin up a storm out on the run last night but backed off that idea on 12z run this morning. The GFS shows nothing at all nor do any of the other models.

My guess is we have a weak low that tries to form but just does not make it due to the movement toward the Texas coast. If the system stalls for a few days which could happen, then I think it has a chance to develop. In any case, the major impacts of a system like this is heavy rains for the Texas coast.

Rainfall for Texas will be in the 1-5 inch category. Some flooding may occur buy given the dryness recently, they might be able to handle that much rain.

Just an overview of the weather this weekend.