A cold front moving into the Northern Plains will spark severe storms this afternoon into tonight. The storms will mainly produce large hail and damaging wind gusts but a tornado or two is not out of the question. The storms will develop into an MCS ( Mesoscale Convective System) overnight which will move Southeast into Minnesota and Wisconsin before dying out. While I am not showing any risk for severe weather into Minneapolis or Wisconsin, I see gusty winds and very heavy rain overnight as the complex of storms moves southeast. It’s not out of the question the storms make it all the way to Chicago Friday Morning.

The focus today and Wednesday will be the potential for severe weather across the Northeast. A cold front will blast across the area and aloft, a very strong jet streak will plunge in helping to increase the upward motion and potential for severe storms including supercells with large hail and damaging winds. Dew points, while low today, will rise into the 60s ahead of the front and the shear will also increase helping to support rotating storms.

An initial round of thunderstorms will occur in the morning but should move out allowing for heating during the afternoon. Storms will develop after 3:00 pm EDT from western New York into West Virginia and strengthen moving East.

I outlined an area across northern Pennsylvania and New York where the shear is the greatest resulting in the greatest risk for a tornado. I think the Wednesday morning soundings and simulated radars will help to identify areas where tornadoes may occur.

I see the National Hurricane Center updated the chances for development by showing a 10% chance of development for an area in the Southern Caribbean. We all have been scratching our heads at the GFS for showing a hurricane run after run the past week or so and now we have an area of disturbed weather. I feel sometimes we live and die by the ECMWF but since the Weather Service made changes to the GFS tropical parameters it seems the model has been doing better. Ok, you can argue that, but if you use the model for potential development, it seems to show that.

So what’s next. Both models are now showing a weak low in the Southwest Gulf late in the weekend and early next week. The pattern would suggests that some tropical system should show up there but it does not suggest yet that a hurricane would develop. That is something we have to watch and see what happens over the next couple of days. For now, lets keep an eye on things and folks along the Texas coast should watch for an increase in showers and thunderstorms this weekend.