Weather Madness Tropical Watch: SW Gulf Monitoring and Hurricane Bud

The GFS model has finally backed off the hurricane in the Gulf but that does not mean we let our guard down for the Southwest Gulf by this weekend. I think all a long the GFS model has been showing that something could develop but the intensity and location was off. Even if you studied the runs of the ECMWF model, it showed a very weak low developing in the Southwest Gulf which all makes sense given what we are seeing in the pattern.

Other wise, the Atlantic is has too much shear for for development the next 5 days.



In the Pacific, Hurricane Bud is probably hitting peak intensity  and will continue to move north toward Baja, making landfall this weekend. Bud will break the heat across parts of the Southwest next week by setting up a monsoonal flow with numerous showers and thunderstorms. The threat across parts of Arizona and New Mexico will become flash flooding next week as the remains of Bud come up.



Wet Pattern Continues

The pattern across the eastern half of the country has certainly been wet and that wet pattern will continue the next two weeks. The GFS model shown above clearly shows heavy rains from the Northern Plains into the Southeast. Lets be cautious about the rain in the Southeast because the GFS wants to bring another tropical system north and it’s probably too early to start talking about the potential. However, the model did well with Alberto. In any case, with higher then normal dew points and fronts slamming into those dew points, expects times when flash flooding can occur.


Tracking the Tornado


August, 2017, I tracked a supercell thunderstorm  south of State College. Heading down Rt-45, I tracked right under the rotating wall cloud as seen in this image. If you look closely, you can see the cylinder look of the cloud with rising scud where the tornado could have formed if the rotation in the storm was greater.




Watch the change to snow on radar.
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