EL NINO JET TO STRENGTHEN
A Wild Winter May Be Taking Shape
I mentioned this last night during Weather & a Beer: if this strong El Niño peaks between October and December as some of the guidance is suggesting, it could have a major impact on the weather pattern heading into winter.
The biggest thing to watch is what happens to the southern jet stream.
A strong El Niño tends to energize the subtropical jet, and if that jet becomes particularly powerful this fall, we could see a very active storm track develop across the southern tier of the United States. That could mean periods of extremely heavy precipitation developing from California and the Southwest across the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast, and eventually toward the East Coast.
And I don't think this is necessarily something that ends in November or December. There is a growing possibility that the stormy pattern could continue well into the winter.
The Southern Jet Could Become A Major Player
As the southern jet strengthens, storms will have a powerful pathway to travel across the country. The southern tier could become increasingly wet beginning as early as October, with repeated storm systems bringing heavy rainfall.
California and the Southwest could be particularly active, but the storminess would not necessarily stop there. Storm systems could continue eastward into the southern Plains and Southeast, where moisture from the Gulf of Mexico would provide additional fuel for heavy precipitation.
By the time we reach winter, this could become a persistent storm track.
And that is where things get really interesting.
Potential For Major East Coast Storms
When you have a very strong southern jet interacting with colder air across the eastern United States, the jet stream can begin to buckle. That configuration can create some very significant storm systems along the East Coast.
Those are the types of patterns that can produce major nor'easters.
The ingredients would include:
A powerful southern jet
Abundant Gulf and Pacific moisture
Increasing cold air across the northern tier
Strong temperature contrasts
Storm systems tracking along the East Coast
If those ingredients come together at the right time, we could see some significant winter storms developing from the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast.
The important point is that this doesn't necessarily mean constant snowstorms. Instead, we could have stretches of relatively quiet weather interrupted by a few very significant storms.
Heavy Rain Could Begin As Early As October
One thing I feel increasingly confident about is that the southern United States could become very stormy beginning this fall.
As the southern jet strengthens, heavy rainfall could become increasingly common from California and the Southwest across the southern Plains and into the Southeast.
That could have consequences for agriculture, reservoirs, rivers, and flood-prone areas if the wet pattern becomes persistent.
And if the storm track remains active, those heavy rains could continue well into the winter season.
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January Could Become Especially Active
By January, the atmospheric pattern could become even more interesting.
If colder air becomes established across the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast while the southern jet remains energized, the contrast between the two air masses could become enormous.
That type of setup can produce major storm systems.
The Southeast could experience periods of significant severe weather, while heavy precipitation could extend from the Southeast northward along the Eastern Seaboard. At the same time, the West — particularly California and the Southwest — could remain active with additional rounds of heavy rain and mountain snow.
So we're potentially looking at a winter where the weather story isn't simply about snow.
It could be about precipitation, severe weather, flooding, major coastal storms, and significant temperature contrasts all occurring within the same season.
This Could Be A Wild Winter
There are still plenty of unknowns.
The biggest question remains exactly how this unusually strong El Niño evolves. If it peaks early and then weakens rapidly, as some models are suggesting, the atmospheric response could be very different from what we typically expect from a strong El Niño.
But if the southern jet remains energized into the winter, I think we're going to have a very active weather pattern on our hands.
So when I say this could be a wild winter, I'm not necessarily talking about snow every day.
I'm talking about a winter with potentially significant storms, heavy precipitation, powerful jet-stream dynamics, severe weather in the South, major rain events, and the possibility of some memorable nor'easters along the East Coast.
There is still a long way to go before winter arrives, but the ingredients we're watching right now are certainly getting my attention.