So far based on observations, the snow amounts in South Dakota seem to be following the Kuchera method. if that continues to be the trend with the storm, here are the model maps for the kuchera methods based off the NAM model. The GFS seems to be too low so far while the NAM seems […]
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I extended the severe weather threat zone into the Carolina’s and The lower Delmarva. Thinking is based on simulated radar that a squall line would develop across the South and continue to the East-Northeast with the primary threat wind damage. Winds aloft will be strong so it will not take much to bring those high […]
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I wanted to show you a few cool animations from the NAM model for the storm. Notice the radar precip areas and how the snow accumulates over time. The 700 mb animation above shows you the intense upward motion that moves through producing the heavy snows and high snow rates, perhaps even thundersnow.
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Snow Maps that I used int he Video.
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I made adjustments to my snow map above. The heavy snow area is basically the same but made some adjustments to the Ohio Valley area into the Plains. In the East, I am still thinking the storm is going to hop over the West Virginia mountains and reform on the coast and head up along […]
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For what it’s worth the NAM 12km shows the snows all the way into the big cities of the I-95 corridor. That’s because the name is doing what I expect will happen with the low tracking across the mountains to the coast. I know many forecasters out there are going with the GFS but I […]
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I like the track that the ECMWF is showing. It’s the same track that I showed the other day where the low jumps the mountains to the coast then goes up the coast. The implications of that track is heavy snow interior areas and snow and mix to the coast. The storm is going to […]
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The models continue to struggle with the track of the storm which I am still thinking will not go west of the Appalachians but will jump across West Virginia and reform on the coast. With that said, the heavy snows will go from Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians then into the Northeast. I will […]
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