Hello Dolly — And Get Ready For A Hot, Stormy Week
There are a few things I'm watching very carefully in the weather pattern right now, and we're going to have plenty to keep us busy as we head into next week.
The first thing I'm watching is how hot it's going to get.
The second is Hello Dolly out there in the Atlantic Ocean.
And the third is what happens along the northern edge of that heat, where we're likely to have some pretty active severe weather.
So let's get into it.
Hello Dolly!
Well, hello, Dolly!
We just completed an upgrade to the hurricane information on WeatherMadness, including historical hurricanes and additional information that we're going to use to help develop our own tropical forecasts.
We're also working on a new forecast product that we'll be showing you one of these days.
But for right now, all eyes are on Dolly.
At the moment, Dolly looks like it's trying to charge westward across the Atlantic and Caribbean, but it's already getting chewed up by wind shear.
And that's one of the big problems this year.
The Super El Niño continues to produce an environment that's hostile to tropical systems, with strong upper-level winds tearing storms apart before they can really get themselves organized.
Dolly may continue westward and could potentially make it across portions of the Caribbean.
But here's where I'm going to start watching carefully.
What happens if Dolly gets into the Gulf of Mexico?
The Gulf is extremely warm, and if Dolly can survive the Caribbean and reach the Gulf with any sort of circulation left, conditions could become more favorable for some redevelopment.
I'm not saying that is going to happen.
But it's something we're going to watch very closely.
Now Let's Talk About The Heat
Next week is going to be hot.
A major ridge of high pressure is going to build across the southern Plains and extend eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic.
That means temperatures could climb into the 90s and even approach 100 degrees across portions of the Southern Plains and eastern United States.
And after the cooler weather we've experienced recently, it's going to feel absolutely horrible outside.
Hot.
Humid.
And oppressive.
So if you're someone who has been enjoying the cooler air lately, enjoy it while you can!
Because next week, summer is going to make another big push.
But The Heat Has A Weakness
Here's the really interesting part.
The hottest air won't necessarily be where the most active weather is.
Along the northern edge of this giant ridge of high pressure, we're going to have a zone where thunderstorms can repeatedly develop.
And that is where things could get pretty nasty.
The boundary between the extreme heat to the south and the cooler air farther north can become a breeding ground for severe thunderstorms.
We're talking about the potential for:
Damaging wind gusts
Large hail
Torrential rainfall
Frequent lightning
Strong thunderstorms
And potentially tornadoes
Could We See A Derecho?
That's one of the things I'm going to be watching.
As these storms develop along the northern rim of the ridge, some of them could organize into large complexes and race eastward.
There could be some significant wind events coming out of the Great Lakes and moving into the Northeast.
Could this become a full-blown derecho pattern?
I'm not ready to say that yet.
But the setup is certainly capable of producing organized thunderstorm complexes with widespread damaging winds if everything comes together correctly.
The key will be watching how strong the ridge becomes, where the instability sets up, and how the upper-level winds evolve.
A Very Busy Weather Week
So we're going to have a little bit of everything next week.
We're going to be watching Dolly and the tropics.
We're going to be watching extreme heat from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic.
And we're going to be watching severe thunderstorms developing along the northern edge of that heat.
It's almost like Mother Nature decided she wanted to give us three different weather stories at the same time.
And that's exactly what we're going to be watching here at WeatherMadness.
The tropical information has been upgraded.
The hurricane history is being incorporated.
The forecast tools are continuing to improve.
And we're going to keep tracking everything as it develops.
So get ready.
Next week could be hot.
Next week could be stormy.
And the tropics aren't done giving us things to watch.
We've got the heat.
We've got the severe weather.
We've got Dolly.
And we've got a whole lot of Weather Madness coming our way!