🌡️🔥 MY BLOG: WAS AUGUST REALLY ANOTHER DUST BOWL MONTH?
Good Weather Friday, everybody!
Well, here we go again.
Over the last couple of days, we've seen story after story talking about how August was one of the hottest months on record across the country.
And then, of course, somebody had to bring up the 1936 Dust Bowl.
😳
WAIT A MINUTE.
Let's slow down here.
Because while temperatures were certainly above normal across much of the country, I think there's a lot more to this story than the headlines would have you believe.
And this is where I always tell you:
DON'T JUST LOOK AT THE NUMBER. LOOK AT WHAT DROVE THE NUMBER!
That's where things get interesting.
☀️ YES, AUGUST WAS HOT — BUT WHERE?
Let's be clear.
There is no question that parts of the country were very hot during August.
The Southwest was a big contributor.
Arizona.
New Mexico.
Nevada.
Parts of Colorado.
Those desert areas were absolutely cooking.
🔥🔥🔥
And when you've got some of the hottest areas of the country running well above normal, that is obviously going to push the national temperature numbers higher.
So I'm not disputing that.
What I'm questioning is the way some of these headlines make it sound like the entire country was just sitting under a gigantic heat dome all August.
THAT'S NOT REALLY WHAT HAPPENED.
🌙 THE REAL STORY MAY HAVE BEEN AT NIGHT
Here's what really stands out to me.
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
That's a huge part of the story.
Across much of the country, especially across the eastern half, overnight temperatures stayed well above normal.
And why?
HUMIDITY.
We had an incredibly humid August.
And I'm sure nobody living in the East needs me to tell them that!
😂
You walked outside at 10 o'clock at night and thought:
“Why is it still 80 degrees?!”
You woke up at 6 a.m. and thought:
“Why is it STILL 75 degrees?!”
The humidity just wouldn't leave.
And when you don't get those cooler overnight temperatures, your daily average temperature gets pushed higher.
So while people may look at the average temperature and say:
“WOW! WHAT A HOT AUGUST!”
I'm looking at it and saying:
“HOW MUCH OF THAT WAS DRIVEN BY THE OVERNIGHT LOWS?”
And that's a very important distinction.
💦 THE EAST WAS BASICALLY LIVING IN A SAUNA
The eastern half of the country had persistent humidity throughout much of August.
Normally during the summer, we get cold fronts coming through periodically.
A nice Canadian or northern air mass comes charging south.
The humidity gets flushed out.
You get a couple of beautiful days.
The air gets crisp.
You sleep with the windows open.
Everybody says:
“AHHHHH… THAT FEELS GOOD!”
But this year?
NOT SO MUCH.
😂
The northern jet just wasn't penetrating far enough south often enough to give us those refreshing breaks.
Instead, we kept getting moisture and warmth hanging around.
And that kept those overnight temperatures elevated.
🌊 EL NIÑO PLAYED A ROLE
And this is where the developing El Niño pattern becomes interesting.
The strengthening El Niño helped support a stronger southern jet stream.
That kept feeding moisture and warmth into the southern and eastern parts of the country.
Meanwhile, the northern jet wasn't dropping south often enough to deliver those nice, refreshing Canadian air masses.
So you had:
Warmth + moisture + humidity = very warm nights.
And those warm nights are a huge piece of the temperature puzzle.
🌡️ BUT WHAT ABOUT THE DAYTIME HIGHS?
Here's another part that gets lost in the headlines.
Across a large part of the country, daytime temperatures weren't necessarily running wildly above normal.
In fact, through parts of the:
Plains
Tennessee Valley
Ohio Valley
Northeast
daytime temperatures were often near normal or even below normal.
Across the South and along parts of the Eastern Seaboard, temperatures were generally somewhat above normal.
So again…
THIS WASN'T JUST A CONSTANT DAYTIME HEAT BLOWTORCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTRY.
There were plenty of areas that had clouds, rain, thunderstorms and temperatures that weren't particularly extreme during the afternoon.
But then the sun went down…
AND THE HUMIDITY KEPT THE TEMPERATURES UP.
🏜️ NOW LET'S TALK ABOUT THE DUST BOWL
This is where I really want people to be careful.
We're being told:
“AUGUST WAS HOTTER THAN THE 1936 DUST BOWL!”
Okay.
Let's put that into some context.
The Dust Bowl era was characterized by extreme heat AND extraordinary dryness.
We're talking about a dramatically different environment.
August?
WE HAD A LOT OF RAIN.
The Ohio Valley saw substantial precipitation.
Parts of the Mid-Atlantic saw substantial precipitation.
There was significant precipitation farther west as well.
The South had plenty of rain in many areas.
There were certainly dry periods.
And there were certainly areas that were dry.
But this was NOT a repeat of the Dust Bowl.
The big exception this year was much of Texas, which was considerably drier.
But across many other parts of the country, rainfall was a major part of the August story.
📊 THIS IS WHY YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE DATA
This is something I say all the time.
DON'T JUST READ THE HEADLINE.
Go look at the temperature data.
Look at the daytime highs.
Look at the overnight lows.
Look at precipitation.
Look at humidity.
Look at the atmospheric pattern.
Look at where the heat actually occurred.
Because when you do that, the story becomes much more complicated.
And honestly…
MUCH MORE INTERESTING.
😂
It's easy to say:
“HOTTEST AUGUST EVER!”
That's a great headline.
But then somebody like me comes along and says:
“Okay…WHY?”
And that's when we actually start learning something.
🌙 THE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TELL A BIG PART OF THE STORY
To me, one of the most noticeable things about August was how difficult it was to cool down at night.
The humidity stayed high.
The atmosphere stayed moist.
The northern air masses weren't penetrating south as frequently.
And as a result…
THE NIGHTS STAYED WARM.
That pushed the overall average temperatures higher.
And that's a very different story from saying:
“THE ENTIRE COUNTRY WAS JUST BAKING EVERY DAY.”
It wasn't.
There were plenty of clouds.
There was plenty of rain.
There were plenty of thunderstorms.
And there were plenty of days that weren't particularly hot.
But the nights?
THE NIGHTS WERE A DIFFERENT STORY.
🤔 SO WAS AUGUST HOT?
Yes.
Absolutely.
Was the Southwest extremely hot?
YES.
Were temperatures across much of the country above normal?
YES.
Were overnight temperatures unusually warm across large parts of the country?
ABSOLUTELY.
But was August just another version of the 1936 Dust Bowl?
NO.
The climate, the precipitation pattern, the humidity, and the atmospheric setup were very different.
And that's my point.
I'm not trying to argue with a thermometer.
😂
I'm trying to understand why the thermometer said what it said.
There's a big difference.
🌦️ AND THE HUMIDITY IS STILL HERE!
And wouldn't you know it…
We're now into September…
AND THE HUMIDITY IS STILL HANGING AROUND!
😂
Apparently it didn't get the memo that August is over.
But eventually, the pattern is going to change.
The northern jet will begin to become more influential.
The air masses will change.
The humidity will eventually get flushed out.
And we'll start transitioning toward fall.
🍂
And then…
WE'LL SEE WHAT MOTHER NATURE HAS IN STORE FOR US NEXT.
Because if you've been following my Madness for a while, you already know…
I THINK THIS FALL AND WINTER ARE GOING TO GET VERY INTERESTING.
So stay tuned.
🎯 THE MADNESS BOTTOM LINE
When somebody tells you:
“AUGUST WAS THE HOTTEST EVER!”
Don't immediately argue with them.
Just ask:
“WHY?”
Where was it hot?
Was it the daytime?
Was it the nighttime?
Was it humidity?
Was it the Southwest?
What was the precipitation pattern?
What was the atmospheric pattern?
Look at the data.
Because sometimes the headline tells you what happened…
…but the data tells you why it happened.
And that's where the real Madness begins.
That's my Weather Madness for this Friday.
Have a great weekend, everybody!
And remember: