The Next Two Weeks Could Be Quite A Show!
I'm watching the weather pattern very carefully as we head into next week because we've got a lot going on across the country.
We've got heat coming back into the eastern United States, severe thunderstorms developing along a zone from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and then a completely different concern developing out west.
And, of course, I'm paying particularly close attention to the Southwest.
I have a little bit of a personal stake in that area because one of my Weather Children is in Phoenix, and another is out in Los Angeles. So naturally, when I see something unusual showing up in the models for the Southwest, I start paying attention!
First Up: The Heat
Let's start with the heat.
Next week, we're going to see a significant surge of warmer air pushing into the eastern part of the country. The Plains are going to get in on it too, with temperatures potentially climbing toward 100 degrees in some areas.
Yuck.
After all the cooler air we've been seeing lately, that's certainly going to feel like summer making one last big push.
But the heat isn't going to have the entire country to itself.
There's going to be a very active zone of thunderstorms developing along the boundary between the hot air and the cooler air farther north.
A Long Zone Of Severe Weather
That thunderstorm zone could stretch from northern Michigan all the way down through Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and into New England.
And within that zone, I think we're going to see some pretty nasty thunderstorms.
We're going to have to watch for:
Damaging winds
Large hail
Torrential rainfall
Frequent lightning
And potentially tornadoes
The setup could become particularly interesting because the storms may not simply be an afternoon event.
I can see the potential for a nighttime thunderstorm complex developing and moving eastward, potentially producing lightning and heavy thunderstorms through the overnight hours from Michigan toward New Jersey and surrounding areas.
Imagine sitting there at two or three in the morning with lightning flashing outside your window all night long.
That's the kind of setup I'm watching for.
Eventually, The Heat Gets Shoved Out
The good news is that this heat surge isn't going to last forever.
Eventually, the cold front will push eastward and sweep the heat away.
And behind it?
We're going to get that beautiful transition toward fall-type weather.
Cooler temperatures, lower humidity, and much more comfortable air will finally move in behind the front.
So we're going to go from summer heat, to thunderstorms, to something that starts feeling a whole lot more like September.
That's a pretty impressive transition.
Now Let's Talk About The Southwest
This is where things get really interesting.
We've been watching a very active tropical pattern in the eastern Pacific, with numerous tropical storms and hurricanes developing or threatening to develop.
And both the GFS and, to some extent, the European model have occasionally been showing one of these systems trying to make a run toward the Southwest.
The exact track is highly uncertain, and we're certainly not saying a tropical system is going to hit California or Arizona.
But the possibility of a tropical moisture surge moving northward is something we need to watch.
Why Would That Matter?
If a tropical system or its remnants were to move northward into Southern California, Arizona, or Nevada, it could bring a tremendous amount of tropical moisture into a region that normally doesn't receive that type of rainfall.
And that could create a serious flooding situation.
The Southwest has incredibly complex terrain, and when you combine steep mountains, normally dry washes, and an influx of tropical moisture, rainfall can become extremely dangerous very quickly.
A tropical moisture event doesn't have to produce a hurricane-force storm over Arizona to cause major problems.
Sometimes it's the moisture left behind by the tropical system that creates the biggest threat.
A Little Clue From Los Angeles?
And here's something that caught my attention.
The oldest of the Weather Children, who lives in Los Angeles, mentioned that it has been very humid there.
Now, humidity by itself doesn't mean tropical weather is coming.
But when you start seeing unusually high humidity developing in the Los Angeles Basin, especially while the Pacific is active with tropical systems, it's something worth watching.
Sometimes the atmosphere gives you little clues before the models really figure things out.
So I'm watching.
Very carefully.
And There May Be More Tropical Madness
And that's not even the only tropical story we're watching.
We're also going to have to keep an eye on the Atlantic as we head into the next couple of weeks.
So we've potentially got severe weather in the East, extreme heat across the Plains and East, tropical moisture threatening the Southwest, and possibly tropical development in the Atlantic.
That's a lot of weather packed into the next two weeks.
The Pattern Is Anything But Boring
We're getting toward the end of August, and you would think the atmosphere might start settling down as we move toward September.
Apparently, Mother Nature didn't get that memo.
Instead, we're looking at one of the more interesting transitions of the year.
First, we get the heat.
Then we get the severe thunderstorms.
Then the cold front comes through and knocks the heat out.
And meanwhile, we're watching the tropics and the possibility of tropical moisture making an unusual trip into the Southwest.
So keep watching.
The next couple of weeks could be one heck of a weather show.
And around here, you know what that means.
The Madness continues!