💥 THE RETURN OF THE “BIG DADDIES”?
🌎 TUESDAY MADNESS: A VERY STRONG EL NIÑO MEETS A NEGATIVE PDO
The El Niño is still very strong.
Right now, the sea-surface temperature anomalies are running around 2.9°C above normal, which is an impressive number. But here's where things get interesting: the relative El Niño value is around 1.36, which isn't quite as extraordinary as that raw temperature number might make you think.
And that's where we need to look beyond El Niño itself.
🌊 THE PDO IS THE BIG STORY
One of the most important pieces of this winter's puzzle is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO.
With the previous super El Niño events, we generally had a positive PDO accompanying them.
This year?
We've got a negative PDO.
And that combination could produce a very different weather pattern.
A negative PDO tends to favor a ridge developing farther north into Alaska and western Canada. When that happens, the downstream response can be a trough developing across the eastern United States.
And what does that mean?
Cold air can come charging south.
That's exactly the kind of pattern that could make this winter very interesting.
❄️ COLD FROM DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH?
The climate models seem to be picking up on this potential pattern.
We're seeing signals for colder weather from December right through March, with the most significant storm and snowfall potential centered more toward January, February and March.
And that's important.
I've been saying for a while now that I don't necessarily expect a winter with storm after storm after storm.
Instead, I'm looking for quality over quantity.
And by quality, I mean some serious storms.
💥 THE RETURN OF THE “BIG DADDIES”?
I do think we're going to see several major snowstorms this winter — the kind we like to call “Big Daddies” here at Weather Madness.
These could be some very substantial snow-producing systems.
The potential storm track could extend from the Southern Plains through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, and potentially all the way into New England.
If we get the right combination of cold air, moisture, a strong southern jet and the right storm track, we're talking about the potential for some heck-of-a-lot-of-snow with some of these systems.
But there's one big question we have to answer.
🧱 CAN THE BLOCKING HOLD?
The big wildcard is going to be the blocking pattern.
Can we establish blocking across the northern latitudes and maintain it long enough to allow these major storms to develop and intensify?
Or will the blocking be transient, allowing storms to simply move through quickly, producing heavy snow and then getting out of the way?
That's something we're going to have to watch very carefully as we get closer to winter.
The pattern may be there, but timing and persistence are everything.
❄️ NOT EVERYWHERE GETS HAMMERED
And here's another important point.
I don't expect every part of the country to have a blockbuster winter.
Some areas — particularly the Northern Plains and much of the Great Lakes — could actually wind up with less snow than they typically receive.
That's because the storm track and cold-air delivery may favor areas farther south and east rather than consistently focusing on the traditional snow belt.
So don't look at this winter as simply:
“It's going to snow everywhere.”
That's not what the pattern is suggesting.
Instead, we're looking at a winter where some areas could get absolutely crushed while others are wondering where winter went.
🎯 QUALITY OVER QUANTITY
And that's why I've been telling everybody:
Don't expect quantity of storms. Expect quality of storms.
We may not have a constant parade of snowstorms.
But when the ingredients come together, there could be some Big Daddies that make up for a lot of quiet weather in between.
A very strong El Niño combined with a negative PDO is not the classic super-El Niño setup we've seen before.
And that's exactly what makes this winter so fascinating.
We're going to be watching the PDO, the blocking pattern, the jet stream and the evolution of the El Niño very closely over the next several months.
Because if the pattern develops the way some of the models are suggesting...
Winter 2026–27 could be one heck of a ride.
And you know what that means.
The Weather Madness continues! 🌨️❄️
— Weather Madness
Making Weather Make Sense