The Weather Pattern Is Starting To Change — And Next Week Has My Attention

There are some interesting changes beginning to show up in the weather pattern, and while we have some pretty nice weather coming to the eastern United States in the short term, I'm becoming increasingly concerned about what could happen next week.

The immediate weather pattern is actually going to be fairly pleasant across much of the East. Meanwhile, a storm system moving through the western United States will bring some snow to portions of the northern Rockies.

But it's what happens after that storm moves east that really has my attention.

A Big Trough Drops Into The East

By next week, we're watching a large upper-level trough dig into the eastern United States.

And when I see a trough of this magnitude developing during the transition from August into September, I start paying very close attention.

The setup could become favorable for a significant severe weather outbreak extending from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Appalachians, and potentially portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

We're talking about the potential for a widespread severe thunderstorm event, with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly tornadoes.

Obviously, we're still several days away, so the exact location of the greatest threat will change. But the overall pattern is concerning enough that this is something I'm already watching closely.

The Tornado Threat Could Become Important

As the trough digs farther east, we're going to have to watch how the warm and humid air interacts with the advancing cold front and strengthening low-pressure system.

If sufficient instability and wind shear develop, portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Appalachians could see organized severe thunderstorms and potentially tornado activity.

The important thing here is that this could be a multi-region event, rather than just one isolated area getting hit.

That's why we're going to be keeping a close eye on the storm setup and updating the WeatherMadness Storm Map as the forecast becomes more defined.

And Then Things Get Really Interesting

The severe weather threat may not be the end of the story.

Eventually, that large trough is expected to dig into the East and potentially cut off across the Appalachians.

When an upper-level trough closes off and slows down, things can get interesting very quickly.

Low pressure could develop along the East Coast, and that raises the possibility of what could become our first significant nor'easter of the fall.

Yes, we're getting into September.

It's that time of year when the atmosphere starts giving us those first hints that the seasons are changing.

Heavy Rain For The Mid-Atlantic

If coastal low pressure develops as currently suggested, another major concern would be heavy rainfall.

The Delmarva Peninsula, Chesapeake Bay region, Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic could potentially find themselves underneath a prolonged period of rain.

And because the system could slow down as the upper-level low becomes established, rainfall could become significant in some areas.

We're obviously too far out to talk about exact rainfall totals, but the potential is there, and it's something we're going to be watching very closely.

We're Starting To See The Seasons Change

What's fascinating about all of this is that we're beginning to see subtle signs of a much larger seasonal transition.

Snow is already starting to show up on some of the longer-range model guidance across northern Canada.

Now, that doesn't mean we're going to wake up tomorrow to snow in the United States.

But it is another reminder that the atmosphere is beginning its slow transition toward fall and eventually winter.

The first flakes are going to start flying somewhere.

It's only a matter of time.

But Getting To Winter Could Be A Battle

And this is where that unusually strong El Niño comes back into the discussion.

The El Niño continues to be one of the biggest wild cards in this entire forecast.

It's already influencing the jet stream, and as we move deeper into fall, we're going to have to watch how the southern jet strengthens and interacts with increasingly cold air developing farther north.

That battle between warm, moist air to the south and increasingly cold air to the north could produce some very interesting — and potentially very significant — storms.

So while I'm excited to see snow beginning to show up on the long-range models, I don't think we're going to simply flip a switch from summer to winter.

We're probably going to have to fight our way into winter.

And along the way, we're likely to see severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, coastal storms, early-season snow, and some pretty dramatic swings in temperature.

Next Week Is Worth Watching

For now, enjoy the nice weather coming to the East.

But don't get too comfortable.

Because next week could be a completely different story.

A large trough is going to be digging into the eastern United States, and that could set the stage for a significant severe weather outbreak before potentially evolving into a coastal storm that could bring heavy rain to the Mid-Atlantic.

We're going to be watching it closely.

The Storm Map will be one of the places to keep an eye on as we get closer and the details become clearer.

And if the long-range models are right, we're slowly beginning the march toward winter.

The snow will fly eventually.

But getting there?

That's going to be one heck of a ride.