TO NAME IT OR NOT TO NAME IT: WHAT DO WE CALL THIS STORM?

There are times in meteorology when the forecast is pretty straightforward.

And then there are times when Mother Nature gives us a storm that makes meteorologists sit back and say:

“Okay… what exactly are we calling this thing?”

That’s where I find myself this Sunday.

After watching the recent coastal storm unfold, I’ve been thinking about the question of whether this system should have been classified as a subtropical storm or whether it should have remained classified as a nor’easter.

And honestly?

I’M ON THE FENCE.

The science behind the name

This is where things get interesting because we start getting into the scientific semantics of storm classification.

One of the important questions is the thermal structure of the storm.

Was this truly a warm-core system?

Or was it primarily a large-scale, synoptic weather system—a classic nor’easter—with some characteristics that made the classification less clear-cut?

If you look at the atmospheric soundings, you can see that the lower levels of the atmosphere were relatively warm.

But as you go higher in the atmosphere, temperatures become much colder.

And that's important because the vertical structure of a storm helps meteorologists determine what kind of system they're dealing with.

So now we get into the argument:

Is this really a subtropical storm, or is this a nor’easter with some subtropical characteristics?

And that's not necessarily an easy question to answer.

Does the name matter?

Here's where I think the discussion gets even more interesting.

Because beyond the meteorological definition, there is the issue of public perception.

When you give a storm a name, people tend to pay more attention to it.

Tell someone there's a coastal low or a nor’easter coming, and you may get:

"Yeah, we've seen these before."

But tell them there's a named subtropical storm coming, and suddenly people start paying much closer attention.

And that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

If naming a system helps people understand that there is a serious threat and encourages them to pay attention to warnings, prepare their property, change travel plans or cancel an event when necessary, then the name can have value beyond the meteorological classification itself.

Then there’s the insurance question

And there's another issue that inevitably comes up whenever we start talking about named storms:

Insurance.

There are insurance policies where the terminology and classification of a storm can matter, particularly when policies contain specific provisions concerning named storms, wind, flooding or other hazards.

But this isn't as simple as saying:

“It was named, therefore your damage is covered.”

Insurance coverage depends on the individual policy, the type of damage and the circumstances of the loss.

Still, storm classification can become part of the conversation when people are dealing with significant property damage.

And that's another reason why the question of whether a storm should be named isn't just a scientific argument.

There can be real-world consequences.

What happened with this storm?

Regardless of what we call it, I think the important thing is that people understood the threat.

There were events that initially weren't canceled because organizers were hoping they could get through the storm.

Then, as the forecast and expected impacts became clearer, some of those events were canceled.

We saw cancellations around Philadelphia and other areas as people realized that this wasn't going to be a storm that could simply be ignored.

And that's exactly what forecasting is supposed to accomplish.

It's not necessarily about getting everyone to agree on the name.

It's about communicating the potential impacts early enough for people to make decisions.

What did we forecast?

From our perspective at 4070, this was a storm we had been watching for more than a week.

We identified the potential for a significant coastal storm well in advance, continued to monitor the evolution of the system and maintained our forecast as the event approached.

On our 4070 scale, we classified this as a Category 3 moderate nor’easter.

And we held that forecast for more than a week.

We weren't waiting until the storm was sitting offshore to suddenly say, “Hey, look what's coming!”

We were talking about the potential well ahead of time.

And, ultimately, the storm produced many of the impacts we had been anticipating.

The coastal impacts told the story

For coastal communities from New Jersey and Long Island through southern New England and into southern Maine, this was a significant coastal event.

Coastal flooding was one of the major concerns, and the storm certainly demonstrated why these systems need to be taken seriously.

Whether someone called it a nor’easter or a subtropical storm didn't change what the ocean was doing.

The water didn't care what we put on the weather map.

MOTHER NATURE DOESN’T READ THE LABEL!

😂

And maybe that's the most important part of this whole discussion.

So, should it have been named?

I'm still not sure.

And that's okay.

I don't think every weather question needs to end with a definitive answer.

There are legitimate meteorological arguments that can be made about the storm's structure and classification.

There are also legitimate questions about how storm names affect public awareness and how classifications can interact with real-world issues such as insurance and event planning.

But ultimately, I'd rather people understand what a storm is going to do than simply focus on what we call it.

Because if I tell you a storm is going to produce dangerous coastal flooding, strong winds and significant impacts, that's the information you need.

THE NAME IS SECONDARY TO THE IMPACT.

For me, this storm was a good example of why meteorology is both a science and, sometimes, an art.

We analyze the atmosphere.

We look at soundings.

We examine the storm's structure.

We watch the models.

We compare observations to forecasts.

And then we make the best forecast we can with the information available.

Sometimes the atmosphere doesn't fit neatly into one little box.

And sometimes…

WE JUST HAVE TO ARGUE ABOUT WHAT TO CALL IT! 😂

As for 4070, I'm satisfied with the forecast we made for this storm. We identified the threat well ahead of time, maintained the forecast and anticipated the significant coastal impacts that ultimately occurred.

So, subtropical storm or nor’easter?

I'm still on the cusp.

But one thing I'm not on the cusp about:

IT WAS A SERIOUS STORM, AND PEOPLE NEEDED TO PAY ATTENTION.