🌴 WHERE ARE THE HURRICANES?

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2026

🌴 WHERE ARE THE HURRICANES?

Well, today we're talking about something that has been getting a lot of attention — or perhaps I should say the lack of attention — and that's the Atlantic hurricane season.

Because, folks...

Where are the hurricanes?

We're already moving through September, which is normally the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season, and yet the Atlantic has been remarkably quiet.

And there's a very interesting reason why.

🌊 EL NIÑO IS PUTTING THE BRAKES ON THE ATLANTIC

We have a very strong El Niño underway, with ocean temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region running around 2.7°C above normal.

And that strong El Niño is having a major impact on the atmosphere.

One of the big consequences is strong upper-level winds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic.

Those winds create significant vertical wind shear.

And tropical storms don't like wind shear.

In fact, they absolutely hate it.

A developing tropical system needs to be able to organize vertically, with its thunderstorms building around a developing circulation.

But when you've got strong winds changing speed and direction with height, the thunderstorms get blown away from the center.

The circulation can't organize.

And the storm basically gets ripped apart before it has a chance to become anything significant.

That's exactly what we've been seeing this year.

🌴 WHERE HAVE OUR STORMS DEVELOPED?

If you look at where the tropical systems have formed this season, there's another interesting clue.

A lot of the activity has been concentrated closer to the northern Gulf of Mexico, where the environment has been more favorable for development.

We've had a couple of systems develop farther out in the Atlantic, but they haven't exactly stuck around.

Most of these storms have lasted a day or perhaps a few days at most.

And even then, they have generally been weak.

This has not been the kind of year where we're watching hurricanes cruise across the Atlantic for a week and steadily strengthen.

It's been more like:

“Hey, look! We've got a tropical storm!”

And then...

“Never mind. It's gone.”

😂

💨 OUR STRONGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAK

Most of the tropical storms this year have barely made it to tropical-storm strength.

The strongest winds in several of these systems were around 50 mph.

Our stronger storms included Bertha and Edouard, but even those systems were relatively short-lived.

If I had to pick the strongest storm of the season so far, I'd probably give that title to Edouard last week.

And that's because we actually recorded winds of around 71 mph in parts of southwestern Louisiana.

Edouard also produced significant flooding across Texas.

So even though this has been a very quiet hurricane season overall, we've still had storms capable of causing serious impacts.

That's an important reminder:

A quiet tropical season does not mean zero impacts.

🌀 ZERO ATLANTIC HURRICANES

And here's the statistic that really jumps out:

We haven't had an Atlantic hurricane yet this season.

That's pretty remarkable for this point in September.

The tropical storms we've seen have generally been weak, short-lived and poorly organized.

And the stronger hurricanes we've been watching have actually been in the Pacific.

The Atlantic, meanwhile, continues to struggle.

And once again, that strong El Niño is a big part of the story.

🌺 HAWAII CAN'T CATCH A BREAK

Of course, poor Hawaii has had a completely different experience.

While the Atlantic has been sitting there saying,

“Nothing to see here,”

the Pacific has been producing tropical systems that have repeatedly moved toward or near Hawaii.

We've had several systems affect or pass close to the Hawaiian Islands.

So you have this fascinating contrast:

🌴 ATLANTIC:

Very quiet.

🌊 PACIFIC:

Much more active.

And the large-scale atmospheric pattern is a big reason for that difference.

🔮 WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF THE SEASON?

So what's going to happen from here?

Well, I don't see a major change coming anytime soon.

We could certainly still get one or two more tropical storms before the season is finished.

September isn't over.

October isn't over.

And we should never completely let our guard down during hurricane season.

But when I look at the overall atmospheric setup, the prospects for a major hurricane developing and hitting the United States over the next couple of weeks look rather low.

The strong El Niño continues to provide an unfavorable environment across much of the Atlantic and Caribbean.

And unless that atmospheric pattern changes significantly, I don't see the Atlantic suddenly turning into a tropical-storm factory.

🧠 THE BIG PICTURE

So this is one of those years where the forecast challenge isn't necessarily figuring out where the next hurricane is going to hit.

It's figuring out why we're not getting hurricanes in the first place.

And that's what makes this season so interesting.

We've got extremely warm tropical waters in places, but warm water alone doesn't make a hurricane.

You need the atmosphere to cooperate.

And right now...

The atmosphere isn't cooperating.

Strong upper-level winds and wind shear are disrupting tropical development, particularly across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic.

Meanwhile, the Pacific has been much more active.

So for now, the Atlantic remains unusually quiet.

Could we still get another storm or two?

Absolutely.

Could something surprise us?

Of course.

But right now, the odds of a major hurricane threatening the United States during the next couple of weeks look rather low.

And considering what September normally looks like in the Atlantic...

That's pretty remarkable.

Making Weather Make Sense.

I'm Meteorologist Henry Margusity

Keep watching the tropics — but for now, the Atlantic is taking a little vacation. And honestly, I don't think anybody is complaining about that! 🌴😎