Friday 9/22/23 – The storm is developing this morning and will most likely become tropical storm or subtropical storm Ophelia. The track will track the system over eastern North Carolina to Baltimore where the system will just unwind Monday. The blocking pattern is going to cause the system to just sit over the Mid-Atlantic through early next week. Heavy rains of 1-6 inches will occur across eastern North Carolina into eastern Virginia. A tornado threat will occur as well over that area as thunderstorms roll into the area tonight and Saturday. Winds along the coast will be gust 40-70 mph from Wilmington, NC to Atlantic City Nj. A minor storm surge will cause waves to come up to the bulkheads of the beaches.

Wednesday 9/20/23 – The blocking pattern is leading to the tropical system being forced out into the Atlantic after coming north to about Virginia. This means the heaviest of the rains will hug the coast from North Carolina to southern New England while inland the rains will be light to moderate or just soaking as a better way to explain it. Winds along the coast from South Carolina to southern New England will be strong with gusts to 50 mph Friday night into Saturday.

Another tropical system will develop near the Southeast coast Friday. That system will bring very heavy rains from eastern North Carolina through eastern Pennsylvania and southern New England. Areas from The Delmarva to eastern North Carolina can see up to 6 inches of rain. Winds along the North Carolina and Southeast Virginia coast will be gusting up to 50 mph. Moderate to heavy rains will also impact the Piedmont and Appalachians. The storm will move north and be located over south-central Pennsylvania Sunday morning then weaken to just a quick moving low center Sunday afternoon.

Friday Update: Lee is a Cat 1 hurricane and is now in the process of changing to a subtropical storm which is no different than a strong Nor’easter as I have been saying all along. Lee is picking up speed and now will impact New England into Nova Scotia Friday night into Saturday. Winds are already picking up on Nantucket with gusts over 30 mph. Rain and wind will spread north from Lee this afternoon and will overspread eastern New England into Maine and Canada later today and tonight. Conditions will be very nasty Saturday into Saturday night across that area. Eastern New England into Maine will see wind gusts 35-60 mph which will cause some power outages. The highest winds with gusts to 80 mph will impact Nova Scotia. Lee is going to be a big storm that will impact New England into Nova Scotia Saturday.

Thursday Update – Lee continues to weaken and now will be a tropical storm east of New England by Saturday morning. Lee will still produce strong winds, storm surge and heavy rains. A storm surge will occur and heights are as follows.

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA…2-4 ft

Cape Cod Bay…2-4 ft

Nantucket…2-4 ft

Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada…1-3 ft

Boston Harbor…1-3 ft

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA…1-3 ft

Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY…1-3 ft

Long Island Sound…1-3 ft

Martha’s Vineyard…1-3 ft

Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY…1-2 ft

Wednesday Update – Lee is still a Cat 3 hurricane but it appears now that dry air is getting drawn into Lee and westerly shear is causing the eroding o f the convection and eye wall. Lee is expected to continue to weaken over the next 3 days and will come into Maine and Nova Scotia as a tropical storm. For that area, a tropical storm is not different than the winter storms that hit with strong winds, rain and snow. I expect the damage will be minimal but flooding could be the most horrific part of the storm.

As for winds, Cape Cod and Nantucket will gust 60-70 mph, eastern Maine into Nova Scotia will gust 40-60 mph. A storm surge will go into Boston Harbor and eastern Maine as Lee comes up.

Tuesday – I nudged the track slightly west to respect the GFS and Euro with a slightly west turn at the end. I weakened the storm since it appears now that Lee will come in as a strong tropical storm and not a hurricane so winds will taken down to peak gust at 80 mph.

Monday – Lee has attained Cat 3 status again and should hover around Cat 3 status the next 3 days. The track will take the storm between the East Coast and Bermuda Wednesday then hit Nova Scotia Saturday night into Sunday. Cape Cod and eastern Maine will be skirted by heavy rains and gusty winds but probably very little damage if any. Nova Scotia will be hit by a category 1 hurricane with wind gusts up to 100 mph and very heavy rain. A storm surge will occur as well. Conditions will be very bad with power outages and damage to trees and buildings.