I don’t believe MJO Phases 4, 5 and 6 are “Cold Phases” for the Eastern U.S. In the late Fall or early in the Winter, Phase 7 can result in some Eastern Cold and later in the Winter and early Spring, Phase 3 is a relatively Cold Phase. But, during the heart of Winter, it is Phases 8, 1, and 2 which produce the dips in the Jet Stream owing to the Upper Motion in the tropics which just happen to be the Phases for hurricanes during the Hurricane Season. At least, that is what I remember, but my memory isn’t as good as it used to be, LOL. But, if we can get a Negative EPO, the MJO Phases might not mean much in the outcome. The only issue is that MJO Phases generally tends to drive the EPO Phase. The moral of the story is its Fool’s Gold to bet against the input out of the tropics. I have been burned many times in my thinking betting against the MJO.