from a Met I Follow in NJ

” The latest ENSO data points to a cold-neutral state, rising above the La Niña criteria. However, the CPC is keeping the La Niña advisory as they feel that La Niña conditions will be in place again through the rest of October and November. The reality is that whether ENSO is cold-neutral or La Niña, the atmospheric response appears to be about the same, weak. The SOI remains in a range of 0 to 5, and the MJO is barely responding to the La Niña influence.

I expect the cold anomalies to fall into a range of -0.5°C and -0.8°C in NINO 3.4 between next week and the end of November, before shifting to a range of -0.2°C and -0.5°C for December through February. This indicates that the dominant influence on the upcoming winter weather pattern will not be ENSO but rather the sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific, the north Atlantic, and the stratospheric evolution of the Polar Vortex.”