Looks like a weak Polar vortex with a chance for Major disruption possible will keep a nice thermal gradient in Mid/Northern Mid Atlantic for some stormy weather…

“With the constant transport of warm air from the mid-latitudes of the troposphere to the high latitudes of the stratosphere via the EP-Flux, I don’t see any end to the stretching of the Polar Vortex any time soon. This signal means that as the Polar Vortex stretches and contracts over the next ten weeks, we’ll likely experience waves of cold and warm regimes across North America, with the thermal gradient between these regimes remaining around the Mississippi River Valley, the Tennessee River Valley, and the Mid-Atlantic. There is also the potential for a more robust disruption and major stratospheric warming event taking place in mid-January that would lock in the idea of a cold and stormy February, but we have time before ironing out the details on that. Either way, the driving influence on the weather pattern is clearly in the stratosphere with favorable signals of continued disruption and high latitude blocking via the negative QBO, robust EP Flux, and limited tropical forcing influence.”

Steve D