There is a lot of talk (of course, there is) this morning of the winter pattern turning warm based on various model suites of various models. The models are having a very difficult time handling the interaction with shortwaves, thus the highly volatile medium and long-range forecast. That said, I want to point out that all guidance suggests the Polar Vortex will remain weak and stretched towards North America over the next 15 days. This means that the atmospheric environment is far more favorable for waves of cold air and high latitude blocking over the next 15 days than a large ridge over the Eastern United States or a lack of blocking over the higher latitudes. Given this factor and other observations over the past two weeks, I would not put much weight on the model guidance for a few days past 120 hours.