Friday Update: Lee is a Cat 1 hurricane and is now in the process of changing to a subtropical storm which is no different than a strong Nor’easter as I have been saying all along. Lee is picking up speed and now will impact New England into Nova Scotia Friday night into Saturday. Winds are already picking up on Nantucket with gusts over 30 mph. Rain and wind will spread north from Lee this afternoon and will overspread eastern New England into Maine and Canada later today and tonight. Conditions will be very nasty Saturday into Saturday night across that area. Eastern New England into Maine will see wind gusts 35-60 mph which will cause some power outages. The highest winds with gusts to 80 mph will impact Nova Scotia. Lee is going to be a big storm that will impact New England into Nova Scotia Saturday.

Thursday Update – Lee continues to weaken and now will be a tropical storm east of New England by Saturday morning. Lee will still produce strong winds, storm surge and heavy rains. A storm surge will occur and heights are as follows.

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA…2-4 ft

Cape Cod Bay…2-4 ft

Nantucket…2-4 ft

Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada…1-3 ft

Boston Harbor…1-3 ft

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA…1-3 ft

Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY…1-3 ft

Long Island Sound…1-3 ft

Martha’s Vineyard…1-3 ft

Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY…1-2 ft

Wednesday Update – Lee is still a Cat 3 hurricane but it appears now that dry air is getting drawn into Lee and westerly shear is causing the eroding o f the convection and eye wall. Lee is expected to continue to weaken over the next 3 days and will come into Maine and Nova Scotia as a tropical storm. For that area, a tropical storm is not different than the winter storms that hit with strong winds, rain and snow. I expect the damage will be minimal but flooding could be the most horrific part of the storm.

As for winds, Cape Cod and Nantucket will gust 60-70 mph, eastern Maine into Nova Scotia will gust 40-60 mph. A storm surge will go into Boston Harbor and eastern Maine as Lee comes up.

Tuesday – I nudged the track slightly west to respect the GFS and Euro with a slightly west turn at the end. I weakened the storm since it appears now that Lee will come in as a strong tropical storm and not a hurricane so winds will taken down to peak gust at 80 mph.

Monday – Lee has attained Cat 3 status again and should hover around Cat 3 status the next 3 days. The track will take the storm between the East Coast and Bermuda Wednesday then hit Nova Scotia Saturday night into Sunday. Cape Cod and eastern Maine will be skirted by heavy rains and gusty winds but probably very little damage if any. Nova Scotia will be hit by a category 1 hurricane with wind gusts up to 100 mph and very heavy rain. A storm surge will occur as well. Conditions will be very bad with power outages and damage to trees and buildings.

Tuesday Update – Idalia is rapidly intensifying and will become a major hurricane at cat 3 prior to landfall. Key changes.

1. Intensification is increased to Cat 3 at landfall.
2. Peak wind gust 130 mph.
3. Storm surge will be damaging.
4. Landfall expect around 10am Et Wednesday morning.
5. Idalia may stay at hurricane status all the way to eastern South Carolina.
6. Idalia track may turn back to the southwest this weekend and could mean another hit on Florida next week as a tropical storm.

Monday Update – The biggest change the last 24 hours is the intensity forecast which now indicates that Idalia will have enough time to spin-up over the hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico and become a Cat 2 hurricane. Landfall is still expected to be Wednesday morning north of Tampa now. The path has shifted to the right and it may shift more to the right with time. Impacts will be the same with a moderate storms surge, winds over 60 mph with peak gust to 100 mph and flooding rains.

Idalia is just a tropical storm this morning but will become a tropical storm today and eventually a Cat 1 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. I don’t think Idalia has enough time to become a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane because once the system gets moving, landfall will occur by Wednesday morning. The Gulf coast of the Florida Panhandle will take the brunt of the storm with hurricane force winds and storm surge. Flooding rains will spread through the Southeast into the Carolina’s.

Idalia will bring winds along the Gulf Coast of 60+mph when landfall occurs which will be south of Tallahassee Wednesday morning. Idalia will weaken quickly but heavy rains and flash flooding will spread through Georgia through the Carolinas into Friday. Some areas will see up to 8 inches of rain. Severe storms and tornadoes will occur east of the track of Idalia and impact eastern Georgia and the eastern Carolina’s.

Idalia should move off the coast Friday morning.

This week the top highlights will be Idalia hitting the Southeast and the heat which will return for the Labor Day Weekend.  

Idalia will become a tropical storm Sunday and eventually a Cat 1 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. I don’t think Idalia has enough time to become a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane because once the system gets moving, landfall will occur by Wednesday morning. The Gulf coast of the Florida Panhandle will take the brunt of the storm with hurricane force winds and storm surge. Flooding rains will spread through the Southeast into the Carolina’s. For more information, please see the post about Idalia.  

The heat which was pushed south by the cold front will expand back into the Plains and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys later this week and a surge of heat will come into the Mid-Atlantic next weekend. Temperatures will be the 100s again through the Labor Day weekend before the next cold front will push the heat away again.