The GFS has gone to a solution of a hurricane developing and heading out to sea after impacting the Bahamas. The ECMWF is now going to the original GFS solution of a storm coming up the coast. This is a the issue will see for the next several days of solutions going in all directions depending on what model you look at. THE NAO and PNA would suggestion the a storm will be along the East Coast but how the tropical influence occurs still remains to be seen.

The GFS model continues to be very consistent of the development of a tropical system that comes up the East coast and potentially gets wrapped into the jet stream to produce a major storm. The CMC is going along with the GFS idea while the ECMWF is out in left field. The NAO is going to go more toward neutral while the PNA is going to positive which to me indicates that colder air will get involved with any storm that does develop. How the blocking pattern plays into the storm remains to be seen, but if a neutral pattern develops, we are talking more about a storm zipping up the coast and not really getting wrapped in. In any case, the crazy tropical season may bring at least one or two more storms, one of which could impact the U.S. coast.

Winter will get an early start across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Northeast the next 5-7 days. I posted the HRRR model snowfall which might be a little overdone on snow amounts, but it;s a good indication of where snow will fall through Saturday evening. The snow across the higher elevations of the Northeast will come Saturday where 1-4 inches of snow will occur. I dan see 6-8 over the highest of the elevations of the Northeast.

Snow in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will come Tonight into Saturday. I think the amounts are probably more like 1-3 inches not 10 inches shown on the map. Keep in mind, melting will occur so accumulations will be on grassing surfaces.

I am watching the storm last next weekend into the weekend for major snows in the Northeast.

Low pressure running up the front Friday will enhance thunderstorms from New England into Maine. The thunderstorms may form into a line that produce locally strong winds with gusts to 50 mph. Heavy rains with over an inch of rain may cause minor flooding problems. The rain will change over to snow on the back end of the rain and parts of the mountains will see 3-6 inches of snow.