I am concerned for the potential of tornadoes across eastern Virginia into southeast Maryland and eastern North Carolina. The HRRR model rotation tracks have consistently shown strong rotation tracks through that area, Currently, the easterly flow north of the warm front is preventing any storms, but as that warm front lifts north, that will allow for heating and higher dew points to move into the threat zone.. At 250 mb, a strong jet will be moving across that area too which will help to enhance thunderstorm development. Storms are expected to develop this afternoon and last into the evening. Gusty storms will impact New England early tonight. With the strong low level jet, winds may gust over 40 mph with the storms.

A massive squall line will cut across the South today. That line will produce numerous reports of wind damage and a couple of big tornadoes. The line will behave like a Derecho with winds gusting over 70 mph as it moves through a particular area. The south end of the line is where the supercell storms with long-tracked tornadoes may occur but for most areas from Louisiana to Alabama, this will be a line of storms with damaging winds.

Additional damaging wind reports will occur along the line of storms from Illinois to Kentucky and Tennessee. That area may see wind gusts up to 60 mph with the storms.

The focus of the storms will be across PA into The Delmarva and New Jersey Thursday afternoon and evening. That area will see storms with large hail, strong wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. The HRRR rotation tracks show the potential with either large hail or a brief tornado.