Severe storms will develop once again across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the 4th of July. This has been a repeated pattern for the Northern Plains that has occurred over the last couple of weeks.

Cluster of storms will once again develop this afternoon and form into an nocturnal cluster of storms tonight. That same cluster will move into Minnesota Wednesday.

The initial impacts will be high winds, large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes before the storms form into a cluster of storms that will have mainly heavy rains and strong winds.

Fargo, Rapid City, Minneapolis are in the path of the storms.

Below is the simulated radar showing the distribution of storms this evening.

The SPC convective outlooks will update during the day today so check them out.

Simulated Radar for this Evening

A cold front moving into the Northern Plains will spark severe storms this afternoon into tonight. The storms will mainly produce large hail and damaging wind gusts but a tornado or two is not out of the question. The storms will develop into an MCS ( Mesoscale Convective System) overnight which will move Southeast into Minnesota and Wisconsin before dying out. While I am not showing any risk for severe weather into Minneapolis or Wisconsin, I see gusty winds and very heavy rain overnight as the complex of storms moves southeast. It’s not out of the question the storms make it all the way to Chicago Friday Morning.

The focus today and Wednesday will be the potential for severe weather across the Northeast. A cold front will blast across the area and aloft, a very strong jet streak will plunge in helping to increase the upward motion and potential for severe storms including supercells with large hail and damaging winds. Dew points, while low today, will rise into the 60s ahead of the front and the shear will also increase helping to support rotating storms.

An initial round of thunderstorms will occur in the morning but should move out allowing for heating during the afternoon. Storms will develop after 3:00 pm EDT from western New York into West Virginia and strengthen moving East.

I outlined an area across northern Pennsylvania and New York where the shear is the greatest resulting in the greatest risk for a tornado. I think the Wednesday morning soundings and simulated radars will help to identify areas where tornadoes may occur.