Attention is beginning to shift toward the tropics as we head toward the end of May and the opening days of June, particularly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas. While it is still very early in the season, there are growing indications that environmental conditions may become marginally favorable for some form of tropical development during that timeframe.
One of the more interesting aspects of the forecast is the consistency being shown by the GFS model. Last year, the model performed quite well in identifying several tropical development areas well in advance, and over the past several runs it has continued to hint at a weak low-pressure system attempting to organize either near the Bahamas or across the eastern Gulf of Mexico after May 29th.
At this point, there is no indication of a major hurricane or even necessarily a strong tropical storm. Given the time of year, any system that develops would most likely remain relatively weak and somewhat disorganized, perhaps reaching tropical depression or tropical storm strength at most. Early-season systems often struggle with hostile upper-level winds and incomplete tropical structure, especially before the deeper summer heat becomes established across the Atlantic basin.
However, there are several atmospheric factors that may support at least some degree of development.
One important feature will be a strong area of high pressure building southward into the Great Lakes and Northeast. While that may seem disconnected from the tropics, these types of high-pressure systems can sometimes help enhance low-level spin and pressure falls along stalled boundaries extending southward into the Gulf and western Atlantic. In essence, the pattern could help provide a focus for disturbed weather to gradually consolidate.
At the same time, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to move into a more favorable phase for Atlantic basin development. The MJO is a large-scale pulse of tropical convection that circles the globe and can temporarily enhance thunderstorm activity and upward motion in different tropical regions. When the MJO enters a supportive phase over the Atlantic and Caribbean, it can increase the odds of tropical organization if other conditions are also favorable.
Still, the biggest uncertainty remains the rapidly strengthening El Niño.
Typically, El Niño events increase upper-level wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which tends to suppress hurricane development by disrupting storm organization. But what makes this year particularly challenging is the projected intensity of the developing El Niño. Some long-range guidance suggests this could become one of the stronger El Niño events observed in recent decades.
That creates a major forecasting challenge for the upcoming hurricane season.
On one hand, stronger El Niño conditions could significantly reduce tropical activity across the Atlantic by producing widespread hostile wind shear. On the other hand, exceptionally warm ocean temperatures across parts of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico could partially offset some of those suppressive effects, potentially allowing storms to develop in shorter windows when atmospheric conditions briefly align.
Simply put, there are still many unanswered questions regarding how active the 2026 hurricane season may ultimately become.
For now, the late-May period bears close watching for possible early-season development near the Gulf of Mexico or Bahamas, even if any system that forms initially remains relatively weak. As we move deeper into June, the evolving battle between extremely warm ocean waters and the strengthening El Niño will likely become one of the dominant storylines of the entire tropical season.