A cold front plowing into the warm and humid airmass will produce a band of severe thunderstorms from the Northeast into the Appalachians this afternoon. The storm swill develop this afternoon and will mainly produce large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk based on soundings and the rotation tracks is pointing toward the Hudson Valley into Maine. That area has seen tornado activity this summer so it’s not out of the question we see more tornadoes today. Hail could be large up to an inch in size. The storms will move into New England and the Mid-Atlantic tonight but should be weaker and only produce gusty winds.

A cold front will gradually come east this week and will produce severe storms. In this case, the storms will produce strong winds and hail. The tornado threat seems low this time with this outbreak. How fast the from comes east Wednesday will depend on the development of the tropical system off the Southeast coast. if that system develops quickly by Wednesday, it could hold up the front from coming into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. We do have to watch for a heavy rain event again as the front will interact with tropical system the end of the week. Areas hit by flooding from Ida could get hit again.

A cold front coming through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will produce a band of severe storms today. The storms this afternoon will produce damaging winds, hail and perhaps those things that are not called tornadoes anymore. The UD Helicity Swaths product from the HRRR model would suggests that the storms could produce a swath of large hail or even a tornado. The simulated radars show bands of heavy storms ahead of the cold front. Keep in mind, these are the same areas that have been hit a number of times this summer.