Key Points in the Video:

1. Severe storms for Kansas today, the Northeast Wednesday, North Dakota Thursday.
2. Bud to bring rains to the parts of the Southwest. Could help the fire situation.
3. Tropical system to bring heavy rains to Texas.

The focus today and Wednesday will be the potential for severe weather across the Northeast. A cold front will blast across the area and aloft, a very strong jet streak will plunge in helping to increase the upward motion and potential for severe storms including supercells with large hail and damaging winds. Dew points, while low today, will rise into the 60s ahead of the front and the shear will also increase helping to support rotating storms.

An initial round of thunderstorms will occur in the morning but should move out allowing for heating during the afternoon. Storms will develop after 3:00 pm EDT from western New York into West Virginia and strengthen moving East.

I outlined an area across northern Pennsylvania and New York where the shear is the greatest resulting in the greatest risk for a tornado. I think the Wednesday morning soundings and simulated radars will help to identify areas where tornadoes may occur.

It’s been an active pattern with thunderstorms in the Plains into the Ohio Valley over the weekend and that pattern is not going to change very much today. Another round of severe storms will explode across the Plains while a complex of storms could bring heavy rains and possible flash flooding to parts of the Ohio Valley.

In the Plains, a cold front moving east will be the trigger for severe storms to develop late today. Probably not a day for tornadoes, but more storms with locally damaging winds and large hail. The forecast map above shows the zone from Minnesota to eastern Kansas. I expect the storms to develop after 6:00 pm CDT and last into the first half of tonight. We may see a convective cluster of storms develop overnight across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

In the Ohio Valley, the storms that develop later today will be mainly heavy rain makers. Some of the models are showing rainfall over 1-2 inches in a 3 hour period which could lead to locally flash flooding or street flooding given the soggy weather. In addition to the heavy rains, expect gusty winds and perhaps some hail with the storms.

The storm in the East and produced the heavy rains and flooding over the weekend will finally head out to sea.

Severe thunderstorms will develop across the Plains late this evening and continue into tonight. The storms will evolve into an MCC tonight as the low level jet strengthens into the central Plains. The storms will produce strong winds, perhaps a tornado or two, large hail and heavy rains. Overnight, the storms will be mainly heavy rain makers.

You can see the HRRR model that by this evening a line of storms will have developed across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska.