It’s been an active pattern with thunderstorms in the Plains into the Ohio Valley over the weekend and that pattern is not going to change very much today. Another round of severe storms will explode across the Plains while a complex of storms could bring heavy rains and possible flash flooding to parts of the Ohio Valley.
In the Plains, a cold front moving east will be the trigger for severe storms to develop late today. Probably not a day for tornadoes, but more storms with locally damaging winds and large hail. The forecast map above shows the zone from Minnesota to eastern Kansas. I expect the storms to develop after 6:00 pm CDT and last into the first half of tonight. We may see a convective cluster of storms develop overnight across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
In the Ohio Valley, the storms that develop later today will be mainly heavy rain makers. Some of the models are showing rainfall over 1-2 inches in a 3 hour period which could lead to locally flash flooding or street flooding given the soggy weather. In addition to the heavy rains, expect gusty winds and perhaps some hail with the storms.
The storm in the East and produced the heavy rains and flooding over the weekend will finally head out to sea.