Opinion

3 reasons why 99.99% of all winter forecast have failed this season

1. El Nino turned out to be a big nothing burger for the east coast.

2. MJO, while most meteorologist were focused on the up coming El Nino, very few took into account the MJO which decided to not play well with all other indices. So thus far the indices have been wrong with respect to any sustained cold to support snowfall amounts predicted on any winter forecast.

3. AI introduced into the models rendering the models about as useful a tool for forecasting as Donkey Kong…in fact at this point Donkey Kong may actually be more effective, as a weather forecasting tool than the models. Why they would introduce AI into the forecast models? I have my own suspicion but this is a family show…so I digress.

Lessons learned

Don’t get excited about an El Nino, we literally lived to see it have absolutely no impact on winter for the Mid-Atlantic and east coast thus far. AI is now part of the data input for the forecast models thus, they are pretty useless until 48 hours before any weather event, unfortunately this brings all meteorologist inline with the weather channel meteorologist who are basically “nowcaster” and not true meteorologist…IMO

None of this is a dig on Henry at all I love his forecasting style and have been following him for years, ever since AccuWeather. He is one of the few meteorologist who actually love winter and is not afraid to admit it and forecast it. He sticks to his forecast even if it’s a bust and I will continue to follow him because he still makes weather exciting…IMO